After two years of turmoil, the aviation industry appears to be poised for a decade of growth. But unlike the last decade, which enjoyed steady annual increases in demand, the next 10 years are apt to be filled with a multitude of challenges that will test the industry’s resilience. COVID-19 continues to torment airlines and aerospace as well as the global economy in general despite effective vaccines. While a significant portion of domestic air travel demand around the world has recovered and the fleet is growing again, the unpredictable nature of COVID-19 and its variants remains the industry’s biggest immediate obstacle to business as usual. The rapid spread of Omicron at the end of 2021 set in motion a variety of complications for the industry from absenteeism in the workforce, to government travel restrictions, to disruption of the supply chain, to name a few.

NextGen avionics represents a transition from a ground-based air traffic control system to a satellite-based air traffic management system, facilitated by the expansion of aviation-specific applications for commonly-used technologies, such as global positioning system (GPS), along with technological advancements in areas such as weather forecasting, data networking, and navigation. The detailed and accurate satellite-based landing paths can be used by aircraft fitted with self-monitoring avionics and piloted by skilled pilots to fly safely near congested skies or mountainous regions. High levels of required navigation performance (RNP) capability are integrated into new commercial airplanes and business jets as well as those being upgraded with NextGen avionics.

无人机在现代战争中应用日益广泛。自1982 年贝卡谷地之战以 色列成功使用无人机瘫痪叙利亚防空体系开始，无人机在现代 战争中应用日益广泛，应用样式从最初的侦察迈向了察打一体， 在战争中的作用日益显著，获得了世界各国的重视。

申万国防军工板块已有80 家上市公司公布2021 年报或业绩快报，平均营收增长19.5%、平均归母净利润增长14.3%。主要细分板块来看，航空装备34 家公司平均营收增长14.8%、平均归母净利润增长12.7%；军工电子32 家公司平均营收增长26.2%、平均归母净利润增长17%。中航重机、振华科技、西部超导等业绩增速超过100%，航宇科技、派克新材、中兵红箭、鸿远电子、雷电微力等业绩增速超过50%。

对航司来说，①产品不可储存，航班起飞后空位价值直线下降为零；②经营杠杆较高，覆盖变动成本后的销售额增量即为利润。对消费者来说，③产品同质化，在同类航司（全服务或者低成本）执飞的航班中，产品本身对于消费者而言差别基本可忽略，故票价是消费的关键决定因素；④价格透明，航司无法单独提价，故定价接近边际成本。低边际成本+激烈的价格竞争，供需关系决定航司客运收入。客运收入的主要影响因素为票价和客座率，考虑到完全竞争下机票市场定价接近边际成本，故供需关系是影响源头。

本轮国防建设的大浪潮下，让许多优质的国防配套企业脱颖而出，但我们认为在关注财务数据、跟踪订单产能的同时，也应适当跳出景气度投资的框架，寻找一些在核心技术上有雄厚底蕴，致力于新技术、新材料、新产品的应用推广，有望从供给端推动迭代，在未来整个中国高端制造业的某一领域成为中流砥柱的优质企业。前沿技术产业化带来的高性能产品、生产效率提升乃至颠覆性的创新，是未来大国博弈的制高点。而军事工业的特殊性让其天然成为众多前沿技术第一轮产业化的阵地，美国就在其《国防战略》中提到，要“以高新技术应用实现军队建设质变，从而取得与对手之间的代际优势”。因此前沿技术领域投资虽然天然具备军工属性，但其未来的成长空间却决不局限于单一的军工领域。