2 月份钢铁行业 PMI 回升至 51.4%，且各分项指数全线回升，钢铁行业景气度回升至 2016 年 5 月以来最高位。生产指数连续升至 50.4%，钢厂生产活跃，这与我们微观调研情况相符：目前部分企业产能利用率处于高位。而采购量指数连升至 55.9%、原材料进口指数高至 59.1%、原材料库存指数连升至 53.9%，表明钢厂对三月份需求释放有较大信心。估算目前行业吨钢毛利超过 800 元/吨，已接近 2016 年 4 月以及 2009 年的历史最好水平。

借助钢铁行业规范企业名单、工信部钢铁产能换算表、2012-2016年淘汰落后产能装备名单中的数据，我们对 304 家钢铁企业进行了产能测算，并按区域进行了统计。2015 年末测算总产能与实际披露值基本一致。分区域来看，河北省产能约占全国的四分之一，江苏、辽宁、山东紧随其后。从地理位置来看，产能主要集中在东部沿海一带。湖北、重庆、江苏的产能利用率较高，河北产能利用率只有 57.72%，拉低了全国平均水平。

Imbalance between demand and supply resulting in gap: Less capacity utilization ratio.With steel supply overtaking demand, the capacity utilization ratio has declined to~65% in 2015 from 71% in 2014. Over the past decade, the steel industry has been investing in capacity expansion at a rapid pace because of reasons such as the availability of relatively attractive interest rates for new investments, low production costs, and an open international market.Declining price across streams: Hits profit margins.The iron ore prices declined by almost 69% from January 2014 ($128 per metric ton) to December 2015 ($39 per metric ton). Ferrochrome prices were $1 per pound in January 2015 and reached $0.81 per pound by the end of the year. Thus,the decline in raw material prices has led to a decline in stainless steel prices.Turkey: A bright spot.The Turkish stainless steel market been outperforming other major markets since 2000. The demand increased by 135,000 metric tons in five years (2000-2005) and by 220,000 metric tons in ten years (2005-2015), reaching 450,000 tons in 2015.Turkey grew at a CAGR of about 10% from 2005-2015.In this report, Technavio covers the present scenario and growth prospects of the global stainless steel market for 2016-2020. The report also presents the vendor landscape and a corresponding detailed analysis of the top five vendors operating in the market.

Steel tire cords are the widely used reinforcement materials in tire manufacturing.The material accounted for the largest proportion of the market share of 40% in 2015. This is attributable to their stability, safety, and higher comfort. Asia-Pacific (APAC) dominated the market for tire reinforcement materials in 2015. The region will sustain its market share and grow considerably over the forecast period. This is attributable to the economic growth and increasing disposable incomes, which are increasing the production and demand of vehicles. The growth in the global automotive industry, driven by population growth and rising disposable incomes, especially in developing regions, and the advantages ofreinforced tires over conventional tires will drive the market growth over 2016-2020.

投资策略：本周上证综合指数下跌 0.17%，钢铁板块下跌 0.76%。周内商 品价格出现普跌，三月美国加息落地概率较大，加之中国央行本月信贷控 制和 MPA 较紧，宏观层面变化是近期商品调整的核心要素。从相对强弱 来看受海外需求权重影响较大的商品跌幅更大，国内因素主导的黑色系跌 幅相对较小。行业层面上，十二月以来产业链逐步增加库存，近期价格回 落后，部分主动囤积的经销商开始兑现利润，同时下游企业也出现观望情 况，消化之前所储备原料，这一点在板材领域表现明显。考虑到节后库存 同比虽然增幅较大，但绝对数量依然偏低，预计库存调整周期不长。二季 度经济我们认为偏稳，近期的价格调整并不代表实际消费出现大幅回落， 钢材出库量符合季节性特征，本周螺纹钢库存降幅较大，显示以基建地产 代表的建筑业依然强劲。下半年经济向上期权即四年工业企业资产负债表 修复后重新扩张还有待观察，它取决于上半年政府收缩速度。我们继续维 持对行业的判断，推荐标的如新钢股份、本钢板材、马钢股份、鞍钢股份、 河钢股份、方大特钢、ST 八钢、酒钢宏兴等; 