一季度，受 OPEC 减产等供给偏紧影响，布油价格震荡上行至近 70 美元/桶。在保供压力和加大勘探开采投入带动下，一季度我国原油产量继续保持稳定，原油产量增速延续正增长态势，同比增长 0.6%；受产能过剩和化工行业不利影响，原油加工量增速有所回落；原油进口略有增加，一季度，我国原油进口突破 1.2 亿吨，同比增长 8.2%。天然气生产和进口快速增长，一季度生产和进口量分别为 440 亿立方米和 2427 万吨，对应的增速分别为 9.4%和 8.2%。

Brazil’s mining sector features a high level of concentration, especially in respect of most metallic mining outputs, with most production in the hands of a small number of large firms with capital of mixed origins. Regulation is an important factor in the outlook for the sector, since the market is still adapting to the new dispositions of the Mining Code, approved in June 2018. Non-metallic mineral activity shows a more fragmented structure, due to the prominence of civil construction aggregates in sub-sector output. In these products it is a big advantage to be close to the consumer, which favours both small companies and local ones.

Although Turkey has initiated a privatisation and liberalisation process of its mining industry, the state still has controlling stakes in the key companies operating in the sector. At the same time, the government sees private sector investments from local and foreign companies as a crucial factor for the development of domestic mineral reserves. In order to lure more investors, the government has pursued a policy of making the business environment in the mining industry more attractive. Still, the political and economic challenges over 2016-2018 are undermining foreign investor confidence in the country in general and the mining sector in particular.

The coal mining industry in China has been undergoing an intense consolidation process, with many small inefficient businesses closing down, allowing the number of large coal enterprises to increase. Due to their extensive operating scale and big market shares, SOEs are the sector’s main revenue generators. In 2017, the country’s top five coal producers generated over 22% of the total revenue of the coal mining sector, up from the 15% share in 2016. The government industry reforms envisage further consolidation of China’s mining sector, which is likely to increase the M&A activity in the sector. In order to boost their profits across the value chain, coal producers are expected to further expand their presence in segments such as syngas, olefins and liquid fuels, as well as in the coal-tooil conversion.

历史数据显示，M1 与M2 的同比增速之差领先中周期煤价变动，也可很好地解释煤炭板块超额收益，社融规模的持续扩张或带动M1 增速的加快，或在中期带动煤价上涨，加之目前供需预期的双向修正利好煤价预期改善，且板块估值水平接近历史底部，板块近期表现有望持续活跃。