行业百花齐放，工业类崭露锋芒。自 1968 年通用电气试制第一台双足机器人以来，人形机器人产业已经历了三个主要发展阶段，包括萌芽阶段（1960-1990）、发展阶段（1990-2010）以及“百花齐放”阶段（2010至今），行业技术日趋成熟。而以工业场景为主要用途的人形机器人产品持续迭代，涌现出以波士顿动力的 Atlas、特斯拉的 Optimus、AgilityRobotics 的 Digit 为代表的优秀产品，家庭&商用场景中也出现以Engineered Arts 的 Ameca 为代表的产品。

虽然一些市场观点会认为，去年由于俄乌冲突而导致的欧洲能源价格上涨是“一次性”的，今年在新能源（即清洁能源）需求和政策方面会出现中断，但我们相信，欧洲可再生能源需求将在本十年保持强劲。我们对欧洲新能源展望和政策的深入研究凸显了我们的观点，即投资于日益增加欧洲敞口的全球新能源。我们看到欧洲市场清洁能源政策的加速，部分和美国的通货膨胀削减法案类似，并促进新的投资，从而导致本十年以更实惠的新能源实现结构性更高的需求增长。    

回顾 1H23，火电盈利修复贯穿行情主线。在能源保供和产业链安全大背景下，主要成本煤价和硅料价格实现超预期下行，推动火电扭亏、风光回报趋势向好。核电兑现量价稳健，打造电力“中特估”。展望下半年，我们认为：高温和经济温和复苏刺激需求，支撑电力量价表现，转型扎实推进，静待绿电打开成长空间。我们推荐排序：新能源>火电>水电>核电。     

Equipment Type: Power switching equipment, indoor and outdoor, excluding structures Industry: Electrical equipment manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Storage batteries other than nickel cadmium or lead acid Industry: Battery manufacturing

Equipment Type: Power circuit breakers, all voltages Industry: Electrical equipment manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Residential-type electric lighting fixtures (excluding portable), including parts Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Solid state motor controllers (all voltages) Industry: Electrical equipment manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Residential-type incandescent portable floor lamps, complete w/ shade Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Thermoset insulated power cable (excluding underground) Industry: Communication and energy wire and cable manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below:

Equipment Type: Incandescent hand portable flashlights and flashlight lanterns Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Residential-type fluorescent portable lamps Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

6月铁路投资强劲，电力投资维持高增。2023年1-6月狭义基建投资同比增长 7.20%；2023年1-6月广义基建投资同比增长10.71%。单月来看，6月单月广义基建同比增速 12.34%，狭义基建同比增速6.42%。增速较快主要体现在电力、热力、燃气及水的生产和供应业，以及交通运输、仓储和邮政业，二者分别累计同比增加 27.0%/11.0%。预计今年基建投资仍将延续高增，从结构上看，电力投资增速较高，交通运输业增速反弹，其中6月铁路投资增速明显提升。 

当前版块处于情绪、估值、预期的三重低位，我们认为大部分龙头公司凭借新产品迭代、产业链延伸、集中度提升等超额增速来源，仍将在 2024 年呈现显著成长性，下半年将是市场对目前极度悲观的板块预期开启修复的时间窗口。建议重点布局a 突出的环节/公司/主线:1)对中短期盈利维持能力和中长期竞争格局稳定性都存在低估的一你化组件龙头:2) 抗光伏主产业链波动能力强的储能及运营商:3) 凭借 突出的业务或产品线布局而具各穿越周期能力的强周期环节(硅料/硅片/设备) 龙头:4) 方向明确、催化不断的电镀铜 (HUT)&钙铁矿新技术方向的设备/材料供应商龙头:5)盈利触底、随排产提升存在盈利向上弹性且龙头优势突出的输材/耗材环节。

新型电力系统加快建设，新能源发电消纳日趋重要。2011-2022年， 太阳能、风电的发电装机容量占总装机容量的比重逐年提升，截止 2022年，太阳能、风电的发电装机容量占总装机容量的比重达29.6%， 较2021年提高2.9个百分点。截至今年6月，太阳能累积发电装机容 量达到471GW，为仅次于火电的第二大装机容量的电源。随着太阳能、 风电装机规模的不断快速提升，将给电网安全性和稳定性带来挑战， 随着大规模新能源装机并网发电，新能源电力消纳问题不可避免。

合同能源管理是目前较常见的运营模式。工商业储能主要有四种运营模式：合同能源管理、融资租赁+合同能源管理、业主自投资和纯租赁，在市场早期，合同能源管理模式较为常见，即由能源服务方投资购买储能并以能源服务形式提供给用电企业，二者多以85%：15%等比例分享收益，进入市场主流期后，自投资和纯租赁模式或将占有更高比重。 

2023 年以来，国家核证自愿减排量市场重启进程加快。2023 年 3 月 30 日，生态环境部发布了《关于公开征集温室气体自愿减排项目方法学建议的函》，向社会公开征集 CCER 项目方法学建议，这是自 2017 年 3 月国家核证自愿减排量市场暂停审核以来，CCER 重启进程的第一个实质性进展。2023 年 7 月 7 日，生态环境部联合市场监管总局对 2012 年 6 月 13 日发布的《温室气体自愿减排交易管理暂行办法》进行了修订，编制形成《温室气体自愿减排交易管理办法（试行）》，并面向全社会公开征求意见。管理办法对原温室气体自愿减排方法学、项目、减排量、审定与核证机构、交易机构五个备案事项的管理方式进行了优化，明确了各市场参与主体权利和责任。 

港股电力设备及新能源股跑输大盘。上周香港恒生指数涨 5.71%，恒生综指涨5.27%，恒生中国企业指数涨 5.81%，中信港股通指数涨 4.47%。中信港股通电力设备及新能源指数涨 2.81%，中信港股通电力及公用事业指数涨 3.18%，电力设备及新能源指数跑输大盘。中信港股通电力设备及新能源指数、中信港股通电力及公用事业指数上周表现在中信港股通各行业指数中分别排第十八位及第十六位，在行业分类中基本表现最差。从 PE(TTM)对比情况来看，中信港股通电力设备及新能源指数、中信港股通电力及公用事业指数估值靠近中游偏下，可排第十八位及第十四位。

受益于煤价下滑带来的成本下降，火电公司盈利能力得以加速修复，多数电厂表现出显著的业绩弹性，其中 H1 业绩增速前三分别为宝新能源、浙能电力、中国电力，分别同比增加 2766-3538%、490-698%、112-135%；单Q2业绩增速前三分别为宝新能源、皖能电力、申能股份，分别同比增加4500-5900%、183-335%、42-91%。在煤炭采购结构等因素的影响下，沿海电厂仍表现出更大的业绩弹性。从预期兑现来看，火电企业中期业绩或基本达到市场预期。

国内生产：6月，全国原煤产量3.9亿吨，同比增长2.5%，增速较月收窄1.72pct，日均产量1300万吨，环比增加57万吨/天，涨幅 4.6%。1-6月份，全国累计原煤产量23亿吨，同比增长4.4%，增幅较前5月收窄 0.4pct。2）进口方面：6月，国内煤炭进口量 3987万吨，环比增长0.7%，同比增长110.1%。3）总供应量：6月，供给合计4.3亿吨，环比增长1.17%。6月供应量小幅回升的原因：一方面，终端需求改善，国内煤价在6月中旬后筑底反弹，市场情绪修复，下游采购积极，煤矿出货顺畅，生产积极性有所提升；另一方面，进口煤维持较好利润，在国内价格反弹的情况下，沿海电厂偏好进口补充。展望后市，供应端存在扰动：1）安监升级常态化，制约供给弹性；2）夏季高温持续，煤矿高开工率难以为继；3）海外库存下降带动煤价反弹，海内外煤炭价差收窄使得进口煤利润下降，预计旺季进口将环比下滑。