从需求侧看，独居群体占比提升、生活节奏快及懒宅经济对生活便捷化需求等推动方便速食行业发展；从供给侧看，供应链的成熟、生产工艺和技术的进步，推动了方便速食产品创新迭代及质量提升；方便速食行业经历了品类单一到多元化竞争和产品创新升级，逐渐朝着健康化和多元化方向发展。

The macadamia is a nut that is obtained from the macadamia tree, which is highly cultivated in Australia, the US, China, and different parts of Africa. The popular macadamia flavors include roasted, roasted and salted, chocolate-coated, honey-baked, and wasabi-flavored. Macadamia finds its application in a variety of industries, such as pharmaceuticals, personal care and cosmetics, and goods and beverages.

Chocolates containing alcohol are the type of premium chocolates that contain alcohol as an ingredient. These chocolates can be available in the form of dark, white, or milk chocolate and are widely demanded during seasonal occasions.

Apples are a rich source of various nutrients and provide numerous health benefits. They are consumed raw, as well as in various other forms, such as juices and concentrates.

Olive leaf extract is obtained from the leaves of the olive tree (Olea europaea), which has numerous health benefits. Oleuropein, which is the main component in olive leaf extract, has antibacterial, antioxidant, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, and immune-stimulating properties.

Packaged shredded wheat cereal is a nutritious breakfast food made from whole wheat, which is processed into long, shredded strands and then formed into small, pillow-like squares.

Organic dairy products are dairy items, such as milk, cheese, yogurt, butter, and cream, which are produced in accordance with organic farming practices. These products are made from milk that is obtained from dairy cattle that is raised with organic feed under specific guidelines and regulations, which are designed to promote sustainable and environment-friendly agricultural practices.

A ketogenic diet is a high-fat, low-carbohydrate diet that has gained popularity for its potential to promote weight loss and offer various health benefits. The key principle of a ketogenic diet is to significantly reduce carbohydrate intake while increasing fat consumption. This shift in macronutrient ratios induces a metabolic state called ketosis, where the body primarily uses fat for energy instead of carbohydrates.

Oligofructose, which is an insulin-derived fructus, consists of a sequence of fructose molecules attached to each other in a specific arrangement. The natural source of oligofructose, chicory root, is found in a variety of foods and beverages, as well as dietary supplements, where it is used as a dietary fiber and dietary sweetener with a low-calorie content.

Finalize the scope after feasibility checks on information availability & consultation with industry experts • Develop research roadmap, execution plan, timelines, team deployment, etc.

展望来年，尽管需求复苏力度转强仍需观察，但板块估值大幅回调后，经营稳健且盈利预测置信度高的龙头估值切换空间已清晰，超跌的优质个股也具有修复机会。同时，食品饮料正处于长期“换挡”和“重构”的时代窗口期，白酒的周期运行逻辑正在重构，头部酒企酒价和业绩波动性在明显降低，背后是头部酒企全面往现代化经营转型的根本变化；而大众品龙头增速中枢下降后，估值定价范式和企业资本策略也将迎来重构。

对于2024 年，我们认为在需求端的变化有两个：1 是总量上的变化，即经济进一步复苏所带来的需求端的改善，从复苏 角度去看细分行业，我们认为顺周期板块比如白酒等板块会有机会。2 是从收入结构上分析，如果中产阶级收入能够得到恢复 或收入预期能够扭转，“做高价格”的趋势仍是行业发展中非常重要的增长动力，即终端价格成为判断行业景气度非常重要 的指标。建议关注消费升级趋势下的次高端白酒、休闲零食等板块。 我们认为新产品、新渠道和市场红利的趋势仍将持续，譬如预制菜等行业仍保持增长。竞争格局的优化也将进一步改善 盈利，譬如白酒、休闲行业的龙头将会进一步提升市场占有率。综合年度的判断，我们重点推荐贵州茅台、五粮液、千味央 厨、安井食品、洽洽食品等标的。