行业研究报告题录
制造业--家具制造业(2023年第8期)
(报告加工时间:2023-05-04 -- 2023-07-10)

境外分析报告

  • 全球天窗市场报告展望预测(2023-2028年)
    Buildings account for up to 24% of greenhouse gas emissions and over 40% of the primary electricity use worldwide. These numbers are increasing YOY due to the rising world population and improving living standards. The global landscape is likely to be confronted with energy shortage in the future, and unfavorable climate changes are quite evident. It has been established with sufficient evidence that the present energy generation system is not sustainable. There is a need to shift to renewable sources, such as solar energy, for clean and sustainable energy.
  • 全球单板和人造板行业到2026年
    Manufacture of veneer sheets thin enough to be used for veneering, making plywood or other purposes: Smoothed, dyed, coated, impregnated, reinforced (with paper or fabric backing) Made in the form of motifs Manufacture of plywood, veneer panels and similar laminated wood boards and sheets Manufacture of particle board and fibreboard Manufacture of densified wood
  • 全球地毯行业到2026年
    This data equals output data for the following ISIC Rev. 4 code: 1393 Manufacture of Carpets and Rugs This class includes: Manufacture of textile floor coverings: Carpets, rugs and mats, tiles Manufacture of needle-loom felt floor coverings This class excludes: Manufacture of mats and matting of plaiting materials, see ISIC Code - 1629 Manufacture of floor coverings of cork, see ISIC Code - 1629 Manufacture of resilient floor coverings, such as vinyl, linoleum, see ISIC Code - 2220 The data is given at producers' prices.

投资分析报告

  • 轻工制造行业:消费属性持续验证,关注板块估值修复
    23年进一步印证我们对于家具需求消费属性的观点。如我们1月《轻 工制造行业专题:春节早叠加315,如何看待家居需求复苏节奏》报告 观点所述:“家具作为典型的大件可选耐用消费品,【家具社零】与【当 年GDP】增速同步度较高,且疫情对家具社零需求影响程度大、回补 速度或慢于全社会消费品零售总额”。复盘来看:1)年度维度,2011- 2022 年【家具社零】与【当年GDP】相关系数R2 为87%,较2011- 2021 年82%的相关度进一步提升,而2011-2019 年期间二者R2 也高 达90%;2)季度维度,【季度家具社零】与【当季GDP】增速也同步 度较高,1Q11-1Q23 二者相关系数R2 为80%,1Q23 家具社零同比增 长4.6%、名义GDP 增速为4.5%。
  • 轻工制造行业:3月箱瓦纸进口环比持平,家具零售额好转、竣工数据超预期
    投资建议:3 月木浆进口量同比持续提升,浆价仍处于下 行通道;3月废纸浆进口价继续回落,箱瓦纸进口量增速环比收窄。本周 造纸板块下跌2.14%。木浆系:3月我国针叶浆进口量83.68万吨,同比 /环比+41.7%/40.2%。3月阔叶浆进口量117.29万吨,同比/环比+19.4%/- 4.7%。纸浆进口量、发运量持续提升,港口累库需求承压,供应压力进一 步缓解。废纸系:3月废纸浆进口价继续回落,箱瓦纸进口量增速环比收 窄。3月废纸浆进口量33.88万吨,同比/环比+69.67%/+3.21%,废纸浆 进口均价304.39美元/吨,同比/环比-33.14%/-2.62%。3月箱板纸进口量 28.44 万吨,同比/环比+38.2%/+0.7%。3 月瓦楞纸进口量32.07 万吨, 同比/环比+64.7%/-2.37%。当前箱瓦纸行业需求弱复苏,此轮行业内玖龙 纸业、山鹰国际为代表的密集停机有望缓解当前供需矛盾,同时,低纸价 抑制废纸进口诉求,等待二季度需求向上叠加库存消化情况,建议关注箱 板瓦楞纸提价落地情况,建议关注【玖龙纸业】、【山鹰国际】盈利改善。 木浆、废纸价格持续走弱,需求走势分化,首推成本+供需格局双重利好 下特种纸盈利弹性释放;推荐【五洲特纸】、【仙鹤股份】、【华旺科技】、 【冠豪高新】,其次关注文化纸出版订单需求支撑提价落地。推荐【太阳 纸业】。
  • 轻工行业:底部已现,静待回暖-2022年报及2023年1季报总结
    轻工行业 22 年报&23 一季报: 主要受外部环境影响,收入利润均有承压,但前瞻指标向好,静待年内回暖。家居受制于疫情+地产+消费,22Q4-23Q1 不利因素集中释放,但前端接单回暖,23Q2 开始业绩有望改善。文具略有回暖,未来继续释放弹性:个护需求刚性、头部收入利润稳健,二线龙头积极扩张、增速可观。造纸盈利继续磨底,但 Q1浆价超预期下行,未来盈利有望大幅修复,包装需求与盈利稳定。出口需求承压,收入下滑盈利分化,但下游去库、需求筑底,未来有望改观。

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