打破汽车封闭供应链，电子企业机遇大：智能汽车已成为关注程度较高和上升趋势较明显的科技领域，自动驾驶、人工智能等先进技术领域的布局将主要由科技公司与汽车主机厂、汽车零部件供应商深度合作的方式开展。我们认为，在汽车智能化、联网化和新能源化大趋势下，原有的封闭供应链将被打破，进而构建新兴的汽车生态圈，促进具备技术优势的电子企业将更快地切入新兴的汽车供应链。

汽车科技再次成为本届 CES 的最大亮点。现代、Delphi/Mobileye、英伟达和宝马都在拉斯维加斯进行了自动驾驶现场演示，其规模和汽车自动控制能力比去年 CES 有显著进步。英伟达取得了传统厂商阵营的认可，而 Mobileye 则反过来与初创公司合作，充分说明自动驾驶的竞争将更加激烈。此外，我们也在相关公司的展台上，验证了 LIDAR 成本下降和众包地图开始起步这两个自动驾驶 商业化的软硬件条件。车联网方面，数字化驾驶舱已随处可见，比较新鲜的是将 AR 引入驾驶舱，以及 Alexa 等智能助手的植入，形成车与家的互联互动。电动化方面，CES 上发布的概念车型都是电动车，而在 CES 以外，特斯拉首次向投资者开放了内华达电池工厂。

LED产业链经过多年的洗牌和产业扩张，现已逐渐走向成熟，行业格局确定，中小企业减少，部分行业龙头在多年的竞争中不断调整产品和客户结构，降低成本，提升良率，在经历最初期的毛利率大幅下跌后，毛利已经稳定。2016年起国外LED中上游厂商纷纷减产，伴随着下游需求扩张，LED产业供不应求拐点来临。

在政府“大基金”支持下，国内半导体行业与发达国家的差距逐渐缩小，IC设计环节销售额占比显著提升。2017年主要投资主题是汽车电子、AR及国产手机产业链。1）基础设施的完善和车载平台的搭建，汽车电子沿着两横三纵的技术架构逐步走向成熟，从发展时间表来看，2016年到2017年主要是毫米波雷达、摄像头和激光雷达的融合来实现驾驶辅助功能。2）根据专利成熟度曲线推断，大概率可能进入消费级产品孵化期，建议关注AR领域电子元器件制造商。3）2016年三星、苹果出货量小幅下降，华为、OPPO、VIVO出货量大幅增长，建议关注iPhone8产业链创新点和国产手机产业链。

A smart city uses ICT, including mobile networks, to improve the quality of livelihood in a sustainable way. A smart city combines and shares disparate comprehensive data sets captured by intelligently-connected infrastructure, people, and vehicles, to generate new insights. It also provides ubiquitous services that enable citizens to access information about city administrative services, improve the efficiency of city operations, enhance security levels, fuel economic activity, and even increase resilience to natural disasters.

The evolution of smart homes resulted in the installation of integrated and centralized control systems in homes that include: Environmental control systems (air conditioning, heating, and ventilation) Household appliances (washing machines, refrigerators, freezers, and microwaves) Consumer electronics (TV, gaming consoles, and audio-video equipment) Building components (windows and doors) In a connected home, these systems are connected to a computer, tablet, or a smartphone through a wired or a wireless network to enhance remote accessibility. Ubiquitous homes understand the requirements of occupants based on their lifestyle and behavior, and, hence, respond in a particular manner.

VSAT terminals are communication terminals that transmit and receive text, audio, and video data using satellite broadband Internet services. These terminals operategeostationary satellites on Ku, Ka, and C bands. These terminals are 1.2-2.4 meters in diameter. A VSAT network comprises a main station or hub and other sites located in remote places, which communicate with the geostationary satellite. These networks provide wireless broadband connectivity in remote and underserved areas that are not covered by wireline networks. They also provide value-added services such as local area network (LAN) services, internet access, and data transmission. There are three types of VSAT transmissions: time division multiple access (TDMA), demand assigned multiple access (DAMA), and single channel per carrier (SCPC)/ multiple channels per carrier (MCPC).

Safes and vaults are used in banks and other sectors to securely store expensive materials and documents. The major end-users of safes and vaults are the banking, retail, pharmaceutical, and hotel sectors, and individual consumers. These products find applications beyond just fire and burglary protection in these sectors. In the pharmaceutical sector, safes and vaults are used for the secure storage of scheduled drugs, to ensure that they are not distributed indiscriminately. Individual customers mainly use safes and vaults for storing items such as guns and ammunition.

Power systems are used in all telecommunication installations for controlling, monitoring, and measuring the flow of power across telecom networks. These systems are made up of a combination of smaller systems such as converters, distributors, controllers, and backup systems that bear different technical specifications. The primary application of telecom power systems is in wireless and fixed-line environments. They are used in several other related applications including network equipment, xDSL terminals, mobile broadband, cellular sites, and transmission applications.

Data converters are used to convert and condition signals from analog to digital and vice versa. They are integrated into the device to convert digital signals to analog signals and vice versa. The use of data converters in the devices enhances the processing, data transmission, and process control capabilities. These data converters are based on the architectures that are proprietary architectures of companies such as Analog Devices and Texas Instruments or are patented. The core of these data converters is either based on complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) or silicon or silicon on germanium materials forming the essential gateways for signal conversion and conditioning. There are two types of data conversions:

Wireless home automation and security solutions are next generation technologies that are based on IoT architecture and smart connected technologies. The ever-increasing rate of smart connected devices in a home ecosystem, such as connected entertainment systems, has revolutionized home entertainment systems. Smart home technology is gaining significant traction in the market. We expect the adoption of smart home devices and applications to increase.

Musical instruments refer to tools or devices that are used to create musical sounds. Musical instruments are made up of materials such as wood, metal, string, and nondurable materials. Some of the most commonly used musical instruments are guitar, piano, wind instruments, keyboard, and percussion.

Diagnostic wearable medical devices, used for monitoring, controlling, and tracking an individual's vital signs at regular intervals, have gained momentum in the past few years. These devices measure physiological information through remote or wireless communication and transmit this information to medical professionals or the user. These autonomous, non-invasive devices help assess specific medical functions such as body temperature, blood pressure, glucose quantity, respiratory rate, heart rate, and blood oxygen saturation.

3D displays exhibit images with depth perception by using various technologies such as multi-view, stereoscopic, and 2D-plus-depth displays. However, to experience depth perception, special 3D glasses are required to view the images from 3D displays. Some display technologies that do not need special glasses include an active shutter 3D system and a polarized 3D system (or autostereoscopic system). 3D displays are used in various devices such as 3D TVs, mobile handsets, tablets, gaming devices, and HMDs.

Residential security systems operate on the concept of fortifying entry points of a home with sensors that interconnect with a control panel installed in a suitable location inside the home. These sensors are usually positioned on doors as well as easily accessible windows, especially at ground level. Open spaces inside of homes are usually secured with motion sensors.

Sapphire is a versatile material that is used in LEDs and consumer electronics. It is used in a wide range of end markets due to attributes such as durability, light transmission, chemical inertness, thermal insulation, hardness, and resistance to physical damage and chemical erosion.

总体而言，受益于地产、天气、促销以及消费升级等因素带动，去年空调、彩电终端增长良好，而冰洗由于需求相对饱和表现较为平稳；展望今年，尽管由于调控政策地产效应有所弱化，但一方面消费升级趋势仍在，另一方面三四线与农村市场也值得看好，尤其是随着08 年前后大量家电下乡产品陆续进入更新换代周期，农村更新需求有望迎来加速释放，我们看好国内大家电市场持续稳健表现。

从基本面的角度，短期内我们维持谨慎观点，主要考虑限售解禁和外延负效应体现等因素。长期来看，我们并不悲观。产业角度，从互联网到人工智能，行业公司有望受益于后续场景的落地。市场角度，目前行业估值已接近过去十二年行业估值带中枢位臵（45X，TTM），计算机指数去泡沫过程已越来越接近尾声。

英伟达在CES 发布人工智能ProAI 系统。系统基于英伟达DRIVE PX 2 AI高性能运算平台打造，并将应用在乘用车以及商用车的自动化驾驶领域。该系统可以通过深度学习处理来自汽车传感器和摄像头的数据，能够清晰的识别周围环境，为车辆规划出一条安全的前行道路。

短期内建议投资者依然维持谨慎，静待指数出清完成；主题层面建议重点关注无人驾驶及人工智能，长期个股选择层面建议积极向低估值绩优股靠拢。