债市走牛的逻辑比较清晰，增长动能偏弱叠加货币宽松。2013 年极紧货币之后，债市总体经历利率中枢下移。除了 2013 年、 2016-2017 年，债市走出典型熊市，其余时间债市或经历典型牛市（例如 2014-2015 年），或震荡中走牛（例如 2019 年）。回顾过往十年，上证和创业板两大指数全面走牛的时段包括 2014- 2015 年、2019 年、2020 年、2021 年。两大指数全面走熊的时段包括 2018 年、2022 年、2023 年；2013、2016-2017 年两者分化。

个人养老金制度即将迎来全面推广，配套政策有望进一步完善。3 月 5 日， 国务院总理李强在《政府工作报告》明确“在全国实施个人养老金制度，积极发展第 三支柱养老保险”；4 月 23 日，人社部透露将“研究完善个人养老金制度配套政策，做好全面推开前的相关准备工作”；5 月 9 日，金管局发布《关于银行业保险业做好 金融“五篇大文章”的指导意见》，提出”发展第三支柱养老保险，支持具有养老属 性的储蓄、理财、保险等产品发展“。截至 2023 年 3 月，个人养老金账户总缴费金额达 182 亿元；截至 2023 年底，个人养老金账户开立人数超 5000 万人，占总人口/基本养老保险参与人数比重分别达 3.5%/4.7%，同比+2.2pct/+2.8pct。

从 4 月申万一级行业的涨跌幅看，国防军工下跌 1.99%，排名第 25位，各军工细分领域中航空领域表现最好，整体涨幅为 2.83%；军用材料领域表现最差，整体跌幅为-4.40%。上半月，整体 A 股市场表现较为平淡，且国防军工板块热点事件较少，受市场风险偏好影响，国防军工走势与大盘共振；下半月，军委宣布调整组建信息支援部队催化军工板块回升，叠加国产大飞机、低空经济和卫星互联网等多板块取得阶段性进展，军工电子板块领跑，拉动军工整体板块出现阶段性上涨。

本篇从纵向机构筹码及横向国际比较视角定量刻画当前中国消费板块的性 价比水平。1）纵向机构筹码：公募对中国消费板块的配置力度已回落至2016 年水平，其中对 ADR 消费股配置力度＜港股＜A 股；外资在中国资产中历来偏好消费，但对中国权益资产的整体配置力度也已回落至 2016年水平；2）横向国际比较：①分国别，PB-ROE 及 PE-G 双视角下，中国消费龙头较美国/印度可比公司具备明显的性价比优势，较日本/西欧也具有一定优势；②分行业，必选中的白酒、医疗器械，可选商品中的电商、商超、个护、家居，服务业中的旅游休闲、教培等赛道性价比优势更突出。  

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process.

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process.

Dealership management systems enable auto and equipment dealers to fulfill customer demands for swift and reliable purchases and services. The system also helps to meet customer requirements by coordinating products and services and ensuring the dealers are ready and equipped to offer the parts required for repairs. Therefore, it simplifies the repair and maintenance services and inventory management process. It allows seamless handling of financial reporting, payroll services, and cash flow management. The system integrates various advanced technologies, including customer relationship management (CRM), inventory management, and business intelligence and reporting. Auto dealers across the world are procuring dealer management systems for enhanced inventory management, customer retention, and customer conversions.

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process.

消费信贷低速增长，预计消费金融进入平稳发展阶段。2017 年消费贷爆发式增长与房地产限贷有关。进入 20 年后，随着疫情抑制居民消费动力和场景，消费贷增速显著下滑，此后维持低位（4%-14%）震荡，截至 23 年 12 月末，剔除房贷的狭义消费贷款规模为 19.77 万亿元，同比增速 9.4%，消费贷增长较慢，居民消费需求不足。

在预定利率下行和中国经济结构转型的背景下，市场对于保险投资端较为悲观，一方面，担忧利率下行，固收收益率难以覆盖负债成本，潜在 “利差损”风险提升，另一方面权益波动剧烈导致净利润波动加大，我们认为当前估值体现了市场对于投资端的过分担忧。1）固收方面，需要重视存量票息贡献，以及新增交易对于固收收益的增厚；2）权益方面，新“国九条”等资本市场改革举措以及宏观经济企稳下，权益投资有望带来更好的总投资收益弹性。

当前，“银发经济”暂时缺乏明确的定义，市场中的大多数研究也没有将 其与其他关键词进行区分。因此，在政策出台后，现有研究通常面临增量信息不足的困境。本报告尝试从政策关键词的角度切入，理清各关键词之间的联系区别。在此基础上，根据盈利能力与政策支持力度的边际变化，将政策提及的银发经济领域划分为四象限，从而寻找具有投资价值的领域。

实体部门 2024 年 1-4 月资金运转核心结论：资金运转结果表明实体部门目前信心仍不足，政策仍需进一步发力提振实体部门信心。居民部门，融资需求大幅回落，但居民存款仍保持高增长态势，虽然边际上有所缓解，但幅度有限，反映了居民消费和投资意愿依然不足。企业部门，手工补息被禁止带来企业存款流向理财等产品，但企业部门投资扩产的动力仍不强。手工补息等高息揽存行为被禁止后，监管套利带来的信贷虚增部分被“挤水分”，这有利于提高货币政策传导效果。