上周食品饮料板块下跌1.9%，跑输沪深300，其中调味品（1.5%）领涨，乳品（-5.4%）跌幅较大。季季报收官，白酒如期高增。白酒继续领跑行业，其它酒类总体平淡，伊利收入符合预期、净利略低于预期，调味品分化较大，肉制品行业受益于猪价下降，其它食品公司中，好想你、涪陵榨菜、桃李面包、养元饮品业绩超市场预期，后续可重点跟踪。白酒重点推荐山西汾酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、贵州茅台，食品重点推荐中炬高新、伊利股份。

1～2 月，食品行业生产情况总体平稳，食品制造业工业企业增加值同比增长 7.3%；农副食品加工业企业增加值同比增长 6.8%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业企业增加值同比增长 8.5%。行业固定资产投资与上年同期相比呈“两升一降”。其中，农副食品加工业投资同比增长 6.2%；食品制造业投资同比增长 4.1%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业投资同比减少 10.6%。

3 月，食品行业生产情况较为平稳，食品制造业工业企业增加值同比增长 7.5%；农副食品加工业企业增加值同比增长9.3%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业企业增加值同比增长 8.5%。行业固定资产投资与 1～2 月相比呈“一升两降”态势。其中，农副食品加工业投资同比增长 2.1%；食品制造业投资同比增长 1.1%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业投资同比减少 4.8%。

The Ukrainian Institute of Agrarian Economics stated in November 2017 that year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in exports of meat increased by 38.2% in January to September 2017 compared to the same period of 2016. This represented an increase in value from USD294.8mn to USD397mn. In a display of the diversification in export markets since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists emerged, Egypt has become the primary export destination for Ukrainian meat, buying 17.1% of the total, followed by the Netherlands (14.3%) and Iraq (8.8%). Ukraine's exports of agricultural and food products to the EU increased by 30.8% to USD8.1bn during 2017, according to the Deputy Agrarian Policy and Food Minister of Ukraine on European Integration Olga Trofimtseva (Ukinform.net).

We have estimated nutrition and dietary supplements market by segmenting it into four levels: functions, formulations, age category, and region. On the basis of functions, the market is segmented into medical foods, sports nutrition, dietary supplements, and functional foods. Furthermore, dietary supplements are categorized into vitamins, minerals, enzymes, amino acids, and others. By formulations the market is segmented into tablet, capsules, powder, liquid, soft gel, and gel caps. On the basis of age category, the market is segmented into infant, children, adult, pregnant, and geriatric. For purpose of estimation, the Latin America market is segmented into Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela.

2017年白酒板块收入1,690亿/同比+27.7%，净利润523亿/同比+43.3%。18Q1板块收入629亿/同比+27.9%，净利润218亿/同比+37.5%。我们对白酒板块态度仍然乐观，主要在于我们认为：白酒板块前期两大隐忧——（1）市场风格向成长转换、（2）高位下业绩难超预期，正在被市场走势打破。首先是高风险偏好的成长板块近期受中美贸易战持续发酵影响表现有所反复,；其次伴随白酒板块业绩预期下行，多家企业一季报均给予超预期回应，板块情绪显著回暖。我们认为18年白酒板块基本面确定性趋势向上仍是主旋律，继续维持对白酒板块的乐观判断不变。