未来一段时间，由于原料价格上涨，下游需求不足，纺企经营压力增大；行业出口形势依然不乐观，全年出口若想与去年持平，四季度各月月均增幅达需达 14.5%，可能性较小，全年出口下降的局面已基本确定。

The employment to population ratio in the US was at 68.21% in 2015. The ratio had declined during the global recession of 2008-2011 and the US crisis during 2009, but since the country’s recovery from these crises, the number has improved steadily. In February 2015, a total of 4.65 million people were separated from their jobs (this number includes involuntary layoffs, voluntary quits, discharges, and other separations like retirements). In that same period, approximately 4.92 million people found new jobs. These numbers are indicative of positive economic developments in the country, and will have a favorable impact on the economy at large.

传统纺织服装行业面临行业增速放缓，产业转型升级势在必行。行业正在经历一系列的变化和革新：海外并购热潮兴起、轻奢品牌增速迅猛、网红经济带来新模式、供应链整合大势所趋。同时，棉价上涨与人民币贬值带来制造业端的利润变化。

人民币对美元贬值，纺服出口企业从在手订单、美元资产和未来订单回流三方面受益。建议增持孚日股份、联发股份、嘉欣丝绸、华斯股份等。受益标的：鲁泰A。

《民促法》三审通过，教育行业的资产并购潮即将来临，同时，民促法三审中明确提出义务教育阶段无法登记为营利性学校，因此，在可预见的一段时间内，民办资本涌入及资产证券化大潮或将发生在幼教、学历/非学历职业教育、民办高校、国际教育等领域，这些也是我们资本市场上最为看好的几大领域。