出口方面，在特朗普加征关税的影响和去年同期的较高基数下，1-2 月出 口同比增速录得 2.3%，维持较强韧性。1）现阶段特朗普关税政策对出口的负面影响尚未完全显现。2）美国对华加征关税后，出口正逐步转向非美国家和地区，而非美国家和地区的制造业景气度仍在支撑中国出口增速。3）量价贡献拆分来看，量的贡献较为明显，价的贡献继续回落。4）出口产品结构来看，消费品出口增速下降明显，重点机电产品出口增速回落但维持较强韧性。

今年年初出口增速低于市场普遍预期，进口同比增长更是低于市场预期的温和增长。出口和进口双双不及预期，这与市场此前对外贸“开门红” 的预期完全不同，现实与预期形成较明显的分化。

2 月美国非农就业数据不算差但也说不上强，总体表现喜忧参半：（1）2 月 美国非农就业人数边际提升但略低于市场预期，失业率略有上升：2 月新增非农就业为 15.1 万人，高于前值（14.3 万，下修后 12.5 万）但低于预期 （16 万）；失业率层面，失业率由 1 月的 4.0%小幅提升至 4.1%；（2）结构上主要源于私人部门尤其是服务业的带动，政府部门下滑明显：2 月美国 15.1 万的新增非农就业中，私人部门由上月的 8.1 万提升至 14 万，政府部门由 4.4 万降至 1.1 万，私人部门占据主要贡献，其中服务业仍占大头，以教育和保健服务、金融、运输仓储最为典型。而政府部门的大幅回落，或表明特朗普削减联邦政府雇员的行政令初见效果。

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