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金银仍将下跌
我们判断黄金和白银依然处于下跌通道之中。美元指数在持稳于80.50美元过后,市场重回81上方。短期如能站稳81.50,下半年回升至83,进而指向86的概率就将上升。由此将对黄金和白银造成负面影响。
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2013年生产资料分析与预测(第一期)
2月份,中国制造业PMI为50.1%,环比回落0.3个百分点,但连续5个月保持在50%以上,显示出我国宏观经济运行在企稳期间;全球制造业PMI 为50.8%,环比回落0.7个百分点,连续三个月运行在50%以上,意味着全球制造业经济仍保持增长势头,但增速有所放缓。在此背景下,1-2月份生产资料流通规模保持较快增长,增速小幅回落;供需增速延续升势,但供需矛盾再度出现;市场价格保持小幅回升态势,企业经营效益略有好转但仍不乐观,需求相对偏弱、成本快速增长等问题不容忽视。
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中国有色月刊-2013年5月
The downturn or slow recovery of the global economy had an adverse impact on the demand in the international market. In addition, the slow growth of China's economy, coupled with the structural adjustment of domestic copper products, ensures that most of the domestic products of different qualities and varieties can replace the imports. Therefore, both the imports and exports of copper products in 2012 showed a year-on-year decline, except the exports of copper wire and copper foil. Besides copper pipe and pipe fitting, copper powder became another product that achieved net export. On the whole, the export momentum remains strong than the import momentum. The exports in the second half of the year were larger than those in the first half of the year. The annual imports totaled 668,500 tons, a year-on-year decline of 14.48%. The annual exports totaled 493,100 tons, a slight decline of l. 45%.
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中国有色月刊-2013年3月
Aluminum sheet & strip products are one of the major product varieties in the aluminum processing industry, they also provide indispensable basic materials for the development of national economy. In recent years, driven by rapid economic growth, China’s investment in aluminum sheet & strip industry continued to expand, aluminum sheet & strip consumption maintained steady growth. The demand from exterior wall building and interior decoration,aluminum foil manufacture, printing, PS plate,manufacture, household electric appliances,and food packaging sectors experienced further increase, which becomes the main power propelling the growth in the consumption of aluminum sheet & strip products; meanwhile,transportation industry is becoming a new consumption growth point.
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中国锡工业发展思路
世界经济进入深度调整期,整体复苏艰难曲折。但伴随第三次工业革命兴起,新技术、新能源、新材料的广泛应用,以及信息网络、生物医药、绿色循环经济等的蓬勃发展,世界经济将呈现美好的发展前景,也将为锡工业带来巨大发展空间。
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2013年生产资料分析与预测(第三期)
4月份,国内宏观经济运行稳中偏弱,经济回稳的基础仍不稳固。国际上,世界经济复苏缓慢、回升势头减弱,但有改善迹象。在此背景下,生产资料市场需求增势减缓;市场价格跌幅扩大,企业效益不容乐观。从后期走势看,中国制造业PMI 和全球制造业PMI 均现回落,预示着宏观经济企稳回升的基础不稳;但同时,政策上已将保增长放在了更加重要的位置,基建投资有望加快;新开工项目计划总投资和到位资金增速较一季度小幅回升。这些因素都有利于提振生产资料市场需求,市场价格有望趋稳。
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中国有色月刊-2013年1月
The China’s import & export data of the electronic copper foil industry in recent years is a microcosm of the current development situation of the industry, which may help us gain a deeper understanding of product level, competitive strength, technological and management level as well as national foreign trade policies of the industry.China now has become the largest copper foil producer and consumer in the world, thus seeing a high growth tendency in terms of copper foil import value in recent years. It also indicates that the demand of China’s copper-clad plate manufacturing industry and printed circuit manufacturing industry for electronic copper foils is still growing.
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2013年生产资料分析与预测(第二期)
3月份,伴随着天气转暖、节假日因素扰动减弱,经济运行进入正常的生产建设季节,国内生产资料需求有所启动,整体上生产资料市场平稳运行;但由于生产回升快于需求,部分产品库存增加、供需矛盾加重,市场价格再次转跌。从后期走势看,中国制造业PMI 连续6个月保持在50%—51%之间,全球制造业PMI连续四个月运行在50%以上,二季度生产资料市场面临的宏观经济形势较一季度将有所好转。全国固定资产投资保持较快增长、新开工项目加快,非制造业PMI中建筑业业务活动预期指数回升明显,反映出后期基础建设投资仍将保持较快增长,这些因素将有利于稳定生产资料市场需求。但受产能过剩制约,加之流通商补库积极性不高,市场价格上涨动能不足,二季度将呈现小幅波动走势;而上半年,累计平均价格将低于去年同期水平,同比下降4%左右。
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中国有色月刊-2013年4月
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of the PRC, the imports of China's non-ferrous metal products (excluding chemical and Ferroalloy products) totaled $113.988 billion in 2012, a year-on-year decline of 1.59%. The export totaled $70.556 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.10%. The trade deficit was $43.432 billion in 2012, a year-on-year decline of $ 19.781 billion (or 31.29%).