8 月，食品三大子行业工业增加值增速较上月呈“两降一升”态势。食品制造业工业增加值同比增长 5.0%，农副食品加工业增加值增速为 0，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业增加值同比增长4.9%。食品工业主要产品中，乳制品产量增长放缓，鲜、冷藏肉产量同比下跌，白酒产量加快增长。行业固定资产投资总体低迷，其中，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业固定资产同比增长 4.7%，食品制造业固定资产投资同比下滑 2.2%，农副食品加工业固定资产投资同比减少 9.4%。 

Colombia’s food and beverage sector offers strong growth opportunities, benefitting from the better macroeconomic conditions in the country, growing disposable incomes, and higher spending by the rising middle class. Market players are looking not only at increasing their gains on the domestic market through diversification and introduction of new products in order to satisfy the emerging sophisticated demands of the population, but also at expanding their operations internationally. The most attractive foreign markets remain the countries from Latin America, but some companies are looking also at countries in Europe, Asia and North America.

The global dairy products market is identified as a mature market that has grown significantly to cross over $500 billion in revenues in 2018. The market is characterized by intense competition across all its product categories. The significance of this industry stems from the fact that its products are consumed across all age groups. This makes  the industry highly competitive. The range of products in the dairy industry is also an important factor for the packaging industry as the packaging varies according to the product that needs to be packaged. A combination of a slowing economy and intense competition results in margins pressure as value for money is the key in the industry. Regions with low disposable income or slowing economy face packaging challenges such as efficient packaging with lower cost of manufacturing.

2019 年前三季度，白酒板块上市公司实现营业收入增长12.7%，归母净利润增长16.6%，收入和利润增长较2018 年和2019 上半年增速略降，但仍在相对高位。分层次来看，各层级表现差异明显：高端白酒增长仍然最为确定，收入端量价齐升、利润率稳步上行；次高端方面收入增长出现明显分化，费用率整体抬升反映次高端价格带竞争加剧，但其中较优秀标的如山西汾酒、水井坊仍然实现收入、利润较高速增长，洋河股份仍在深度调整期，收入增速显著放缓，利润方面由于较高的随货折扣表现一般；地产名酒方面亦有分化，古井在结构升级和费用优化的驱动下增长文件、今世缘维持高增、口子窖增长放缓。

我们近期走访了上海、北京共 27 家烟酒店及商超，就白酒价格表现、终端动销进行了草根调研，并与前两次调研数据进行对比分析，供各位投资者参考。

2014Q1-2019Q3 调味品上市公司整体营收/归母净利润增速均值为 12%/26%，远优于同期肉制品、乳制品和啤酒的表现。随着经济增速中枢的系统性下移，调味品板块作为防御性突出的必选消费代表正在享受成长确定性带来的估值溢价。

行业三季报收官，白酒板块增速稳中有降，回归常态，分化继续加大。展望行业趋势，茅台批价上行、来年规划平稳降速、次高端挤压和外资流入成为当下四大关键词。食品板块在成本上行背景下，龙头稳健增长，小品牌分化，管理能力愈发重要，渠道、品牌扩张成为驱动增长的重要武器。投资建议上，白酒板块从品牌高度、渠道深度、升级广度三个角度寻找确定性，首推高端茅五泸，推荐古井、今世缘，关注预期底部洋河，食品板块配置价值依然突出，首推龙头伊利、海天、中炬，当下时点建议重点布局经营底部反转机会，如榨菜、安琪。

2019 年前三季度白酒上市公司总收入和利润仍然保持较快增速，第三季度单季略有放缓，同时板块内部分化较为明显，建议持续关注高端白酒和次高端白酒龙头，同时密切关注业绩超预期标的。随着房地产数据逐步好转，厨电板块第三季度业绩出现好转，建议关注厨电板块龙头企业。

食品饮料板块走势依然强劲，年初至今涨幅为74.54%，同期沪深 300 指数涨幅为 29.73%。在申万 28 个行业板块中，食品饮料涨幅排名第 1。板块估值继续回升，食品饮料行业整体估值在所有申万一级行业中排第 6 位，多数子行业板块均呈上涨态势。其中白酒、其他酒类、调味发酵品板块涨幅最大。