Domestic players have leading positions in the paper manufacturing sector. Most of the companies are controlled by private capital and some are traded on a regulated market. In order to increase their market competitiveness, these companies have to optimise their input costs. This includes to generate their own electricity and import low-cost raw materials. The Chinese paper manufacturing sector has high entry barriers, because the major players on the market rely on economies of scale, which makes the companies’ capital outlays and fixed costs high. The Chinese government policy also contributes to high entry barriers, with the rising level of regulation related to climate change and energy efficiency, affecting the paper and paperboard production.

实力雄厚的地产头部企业近年来着力布局产业链上游。地产公司通过 入股、建立家居建材集采平台、共建产业园等多种方式与上游To B 龙 头公司开展深度合作。

家居方面，竣工增速修复将驱动行业景气回暖，精装房渗透率 提升将使工程业务为家居企业提供增长动力，推荐欧派家居、 顾家家居；文娱用品方面，行业终端需求稳健，推荐零售端具 备渠道护城河、文创产品提升盈利能力以及新业务科力普、生 活馆快速发展的晨光文具；化妆品方面，受益“颜值经济”， 国内化妆品行业保持高景气度，国货龙头大有可为，有望通过 多产品、多品类、多品牌战略持续提升份额，推荐珀莱雅、丸 美股份、上海家化。

维持行业“推荐”评级。具备逆周期及必选消费品属性，卫 生意识提升将提振生活用纸需求，同时浆价维持低位，推荐 中顺洁柔；文化纸受益于低浆价，建党100 周年支撑未来两 年需求，推荐岳阳林纸、太阳纸业；废纸到货量增加，包装 纸厂积极复工，下游需求整体平淡导致包装纸价格有所回 调，短期看价格已经企稳，预计后续以盘整为主，受益标的 玖龙纸业、山鹰纸业；白卡纸行业加速整合，集中度确定性 提升，受益标的博汇纸业。

轻工行业综述：2019 年轻工行业实现营收 4956.92 亿元，同比增长 2.40%；实现归母净利润220.71 亿元，同比增长8.29%，营收增速于 2019Q2 达到低点后上升；归母净利润增速则逐季有所上升。2020Q1 受疫情影响明显，营收下滑15.78%，归母净利润下滑35.48%。