据不完全统计，习近平主席和李克强总理两位领导人出访与相关国家和地区签订的合同或框架协议总额已经突破4400 亿美元，在高铁、核电、基础设施、产能合作、能源等领域硕果丰盛。亚投行、丝 路基金等新金融机构成立稳步推进，项目逐渐落地，与国开行、中国信保等传统金融机构共同组成全方位海外工程金融保障体系，支持力度不断加强。从公司层面看，大型建筑央企、专业国际承包商及部分民企先锋今年海外订单及收入实现高速增长。“一带一路”将是未来最具基本面的建筑子行业之一。

提出了十大猜想，风险提示是政策不及预期、一带一路推迚受阷、PPP 迚展缓慢、国企改革不及预期、业绩下滑风险等。

2015 年 12 月固定资产累计投资增速为 10%，实际投资增速已经出现见底改善。对于政策重点支持的农业和林业投资增速回升。随着天气变冷和春节的到来，行业需求将继续下降，不但北部，包括南部行业也将陆续进入到冬季真正的淡季。上周组合我们继续推荐海螺水泥、永高股份、友邦吊顶、东易日盛和秀强股份。

2015 年建材行业基本面持续下行，目前已经处于历史底部区域。中长期来看，随着经济结构调整，行业已经步入成熟期，需求弹性在变弱。2016年供给侧整合趋势有望升级，但产能出清尚需时日；建议重点关注旗滨集团和海螺水泥。

就业、增长、金融稳定等因素综合考量下，水泥去产能将是“钝刀 子割肉”过程，短期难现基本面改善；但中央高层频繁发声“供给侧改革”，板 块机构持仓低、涨幅落后于钢铁煤炭，“供给侧改革”主题机会仍然值得博弈。

上周行情及观点回顾：上周中信建筑指数收 3846.43 点，上涨4.43%，同期沪深 300 收 3113.46 点，下跌 0.17%。上周提示关注亚投行开业带来的主题投资机会。建筑与工程板块于 1 月19 日大涨 7%，上涨逻辑和上周周报提示一致。

工业化建筑是建筑业未来发展的必然趋势，它拥有节水、节材、节能、建造周期短与人力成本占比少等优点，且国家政策大力支持，随着人力成本上升，未来1-2年内，工业化建筑成本劣势将消失，万亿蓝海，有望迎来爆发。

1-11月行业盈利水平同环比下降。

长期来看经济周期下行，投资趋势下滑。

2015 年 11 月，建筑业新订单指数为 49.5%，重新回到临界点以下，表明建筑业需求回升基础仍不稳固。1～11 月，建筑业固定资产投资同比上涨 4.8%，连续三个月缓慢回升。1～11 月，我国对外承包工程新签合同额 1630.3 亿美元（折合 10116.5 亿人民币），同比增长 1.3%，由于基数效应，增速放缓。2015 年 1～9 月，建筑业累计新签合同额同比下降 6.78%，五年来首次连续三季度都呈现负增长，建筑业进入存量业务竞争时代。 11 月 9 日，国务院总理李克强召开座谈会，强调要用好积极财政政策空间，积极财政政策将发挥更大作用，确保基建资金来源，未来基建投资增速有望保持高增长。《建筑产业现代化发展纲要》目前已经完成征求意见，有望于近期发布，将为建筑业现代化发展提出明确目标、重点内容及有效措施。

Toilet care products is an important product category in the overall home care segment. The penetration of toilet facilities across the globe is one of the major factors to be considered for the growth of the market. Where the penetration of toilet facilities is 100% in developed countries such as US, in a developing country such as India, there is the wide presence of open defecation. Increased awareness through government initiatives and manufacturers can help drive the market. The Harpic Challenge campaign in India for example, was a huge success, as India has limited toilet facilities particularly in rural areas. Rising consumer awareness toward health and hygiene resulted in switching from traditional abrasives such as phenyls and acids to branded toilet care products across rural areas.

The equipment rental market is either operated by third-party suppliers or equipment manufacturers. Rental companies usually rent used equipment to construction companies based on the duration of the project. Although, there are other substitutes for this market, such as equipment financing and leasing; however, demand for equipment rental is high. Renting equipment not only reduces the ownership cost of the equipment, but contractors can reduce other costs pertaining to the use of equipment, such as maintenance costs and transportation costs, among others. Also, construction contractors focus on the high return on investment of their projects, which makes renting equipment a viable option, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Construction equipment is machinery used on construction sites. These machines are used to perform various tasks on the construction site such as hoisting, excavating, hauling, paving, grading, and drilling. Some of the construction equipment performs specific jobs and other equipment has a more basic configuration.

The residential sector was significantly affected by the global financial crisis of 2008 caused by the collapse of the housing bubble. The mortgage foreclosure crises were significant contributors to the global recession leading to a crash in house prices. In 2010, the market started to show modest signs of recovery with the recovery at a single digit growth rate. With the recovery occurring in many parts of the world and initiatives taken by the governments of various countries, construction activities, particularly in the residential sector, picked up. This is one of the most crucial sectors of the construction market as it is directly affected by the improvement or deterioration in people's lifestyles. In 2014, construction activities started to pick up globally, with huge investments being made in the sector.