North African cuisine contains many elements of African and Mediterranean cultures, with other factors shaping food consumption preference, including trading networks and the region's colonial heritage. Given the prevalence of Islam in the region, pork is marginalised; instead, lamb and fish are widely consumed. Couscous is also part of the staple diet across the region. While governments across the region have traditionally supported consumption through subsidies, Morocco has put an end to these policies in recent years, in a bid to reduce budget shortfalls. For now, food subsidies remain in place in Algeria, although the low oil price environment will continue to constrain government revenues and could result in subsidy cuts over the coming years.

Over the 2012-2017 period, the gross value added (GVA) of the food and beverage manufacturing industry expanded at a slow CAGR of 0.2%. The industry was negatively affected by sluggish overall economic activity, stubbornly high inflation and the depreciation of the Argentine peso against the US dollar, which raised production costs, and, at the same time, reduced households’ disposable incomes. However, the sector – being focused on the production of essential goods – outperformed manufacturing industry as a whole, whose GVA contracted at an annual average rate of 1.1% over the same period.

通过对比海内外食品饮料各细分行业龙头公司的成长性、财务表现以及估值水平（历史数据以及市场对未来三年的一致预期数据），不难发现，若仅考虑内生业务的成长性，国内龙头的增速普遍快于国外龙头，此外国内的优质行业龙头也已实现了较高的 ROE 水平，且资产负债率不高，经营稳健，股息率也稳定保持在较好水平，但估值与海外龙头相比并未出现体现出明显溢价。

近年来，葡萄酒行业呈现出“内外两重天”：2017 年我国葡萄酒总体供给量约为 179 万千升，其中国产葡萄酒 100 万千升，进口红酒约 79 万千升，2015-2017年我国葡萄酒总体复合增速 1.6%，其中国产葡萄酒产量年复合增速为负值，约为-6.6%，而进口葡萄酒数量增速却达到 16.2%，2008-2017 年进口占比从 21%提升至 44%，主要系进口关税下降加大了进口酒的冲击。从价格看，国产葡萄酒均价逐年上升，2017 年达到 42 元/升，近十年增幅约为 47%，而同期进口酒约下降 6%至 31.5 元/升。从竞争格局看，大量的进口品牌的涌入，导致行业集中度进一步下降，2011-2016 年 CR4 从 18.8%降至 10.4%，其中张裕份额（略超 5%）仍明显高于其他品牌。

终端价是品牌价值的量化表现。对高端酒而言，涨价是体现其品牌价值、强化品牌形象的有效手段之一。在高端白酒市场，价格敏感性并不高，在行业上行通道中其他高端酒提价，某一品牌不提价时，长期来看将弱化品牌价值，存在掉队的风险。2003- 2012年白酒黄金十年，高端酒持续提高出厂价格，呈现你追我赶的态势。

白酒高景气，中报再提速，继续领跑食品饮料。结构继续升级，复苏传导至中低档酒。广告投放力度加大，渠道下沉和全国扩张提速。2Q18白酒基金仓位重新上升。投资建议：悲观预期已得到体现，前期回调带来优质公司建仓机会。重点推荐：舍得酒业、山西汾酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、贵州茅台。