7 月，高端装备制造业主要子行业进出口情况仍呈分化态势。当月，航空装备出口额、进口额同比分别增长 59.42%、17.49%；轨道交通装备出口额、进口额同比分别增长 69.97%、下降29.23%；船舶工业出口额、进口额同比分别下降 28.09%、 34.66%。智能制造方面， 1～ 7 月，工业机器人产量同比增长 57.0%，继续保持快速增长势头。

西科斯基与空直是两家典型的海外直升机龙头企业，西科斯基依托“黑鹰”一款直升机保持近 40 年业绩持续增长、空直则是依靠齐全的产品品类保持市场领先地位。中直股份作为国内直升机行业龙头，其“一机多型、系列发展” 战略推进过程中，有望借鉴两大直升机巨头的经验，未来随着公司国产十吨级直升机的列装及多系列产品的研制，中直股份有望迎来业绩爆发、市值增长潜力巨大。

近几年，军舰下水速度加快，驱逐舰采用国产燃气轮机已成为常态，055 型驱逐舰首次使用了燃燃联合的动力系统，燃气轮机的应用在加快，国外已经在小型护卫舰上开始应用燃气轮机，我们预计燃气轮机的军用市场会快速增长。全电推进是未来舰船动力的主要发展方向，国外已经在大型军舰上开始应用，目前我国在科考船上有应用，预计很快将应用到大型军舰。民用造船领域持续处于低谷，船用中速机和高速机完工量持续下降，预计未来 3 年内行情难以好转；船用低速机完工量在 2016 年也开始下跌，未来上涨压力较大。海洋核动力平台将在 2019 年开始销售，市场空间超过 1,000 亿。建议关注中国动力、湘电股份。

全球铁路市场容量目前是 1675 亿欧元，未来以每年 3.4%的速度增长，到 2018 年有可能增长到 1900 亿欧元。目前，南美、中东欧、俄语地区的铁路运输设备已经进入了车辆更新换代的高峰，潜力巨大;非洲地区对机车、货车、普通客车的需求也在逐步增加。同时很多国家已经将高铁作为交通运输领域的发展重点，未来高铁有望成为全球铁路市场重要的增长点。

An offshore supply vessel is a sea motor vessel used for transporting cargos, goods, supplies, crews, and offshore exploration and production (E&P) across oil platforms. OSVs support marine offshore drilling activities through transportation of offshore energy resources, and they also facilitate the installation process of oil rigs. They are mostly used by oil and gas companies for E&P activities. The OSVs are operated by ship owners or by companies that take OSVs on lease. In addition, the OSVs facilitate maritime logistics operations for different industries such as subsea and deepwater mining.

Since the advent of aviation, aircraft have been operated with carbon-based fuels such as gasoline or kerosene. Though these fuels generate high power, they come with unpleasant effects such as increased production of greenhouse gasses. Therefore, aircraft OEMs have endeavored to find new ways to address such challenges and one of the solutions that have emerged is the development of more electric aircraft (MEA). MEA are advanced aircraft that use a large number of electrical components to reduce the non-propulsive power systems such as mechanical, hydraulic, and pneumatic systems, all of which derive its power from the aircraft engine. This, conceptually, reduces the weight of aircraft, leading to a low cost of ownership, use of less fuel, reduction in emissions, increased reliability, and several other added benefits.

After the Second World War, MPA were primarily designed for long-range patrolling to track and hunt down submarines. In the 1990s, they evolved to carry out surveillance either at sea or in the coastal regions. After 9/11, the US and its allies used MPA for reconnaissance and battlespace surveillance. Thus, MPA have transitioned from submarine trackers to performing anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and anti-surface warfare (ASUW) missions, and now even to multi-mission MPA.

Military aerial refueling (also called air-to-air refueling) is the process of pumping aviation fuel from a military tanker to another military air platform during the flight. This process allows the receiving aircraft to remain airborne for a longer duration, supplementing the mission effectiveness. Owing to the growing investments in developing long-range aircraft, the importance of maintaining sturdy fleets of aerial refueling tankers has revived its importance among the defense ministries of many countries across the globe.

Marine outboard engines are generally used in powerboats. Almost all powerboats are now equipped with either inboard or outboard engines. The demand for outboard engines is more than inboard engines. In Europe, 80% of the total engines used are outboard engines. In the US, the demand for outboard engines is on the same line as in Europe. In Europe, the demand for diesel engines is more, whereas the American market is dominated by gasoline engines. Another major difference between these markets is that consumers in the European market prefer low power output outboard engines, whereas consumers in the US prefer high power output outboard engines.

上半年，整机表现最优异的中航飞机营收增长 13.99%，配套类航发动力、中航电子、中航机电增速较高。军品具有下半年交付为主的特点，半年报不能完全反应全年情况，但行业增长已经初露端倪，正处于技术成熟拐点和财务拐点的过渡阶段。

新型号跻身世界一流水平并进入批产期，航空高增长拐点显现 从中美军用飞机数量来看，除了战斗机为美国 1/2 多，其余机型差距均较 大；从型谱和技术指标来看，中国军用飞机主流型号已经基本与美国一致， 在战斗机与运输机方面较接近，隐形轰炸机还有不足，直升机型谱有差距， 随着直 20 逐步成熟，通用型直升机的不足将得到补充。我们认为，军用飞 机未来在陆海空和战略支援部队等几大军种中的需求增长都较确定，将充 分受益军队改革和军工改革。2017 年运 20、歼 20、J15、L15 等机型将 进入爬坡上量的阶段，军机产业链正处在这波持续高增长的拐点投资阶段。

八月机械设备指数上涨 2.34%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.37%，创业板指上涨 6.22%。机械设备在全部 28 个行业中涨幅排名第 16 位。 在全部机械股中，涨幅前三位分别是世嘉科技、精测电子、华昌达，一月涨幅分别 27.56%、26.93%、25.98%。 

政策和资金等因素共同支持下，我国城轨运营历程从 2011 年的 1713 公里提升到 2016 年的 3740.6 公里（不含市域快轨），年复合增速达 16.9%，增长显著。而我国人口密度较大，地方经济发展仍不均衡，符合修建城轨标准的城市新建线路以及已有城轨城市的线路增加，将持续推进城轨发展进入快车道。

坚定推周期龙头：工程机械、煤机等；7 月数据预计持续靓丽（1）8 月我们发布工程机械行业深度报告《工程机械：栉风沐雨，玉汝于成》（38 页），坚定看好工程机械明后两年更新及新增需求。持续推荐周期龙头：工程机械、煤机、集装箱等，近期关注混改、船舶。7 月数据持续靓丽，工程机械重点公司中报业绩好，持续性有望超预期。持续重点推荐龙头——徐工机械（6、7 月中泰金股）、三一重工（5 月中泰金股）、中联重科、安徽合力。