中国化工品价格指数(CCPI);本周较上周持平，两周涨幅微跌0.2%,较上月同期上涨0.1%，年内涨幅0.1%，相比去年同期下降12.8%。

自2018 年11 月开始，化工行业进入新一轮的去库存周期，2019 年全年化工行业产成品存货同比下降明显。开工率和产销方面，化工行业开工率自2018 年年底筑底后缓慢回升，产销持续维持高位。需求端，2019 年受经济增速回落、中美关系变化等因素影响，需求端持续疲软，化工品价格普遍大幅下滑。而年底开始，化工行业出口交货值与PPI同比增速均出现企稳回升趋势，叠加大部分化工产品价格均处于历史低位，我们认为未来化工行业周期下行空间有限，行业有望迎来反转。

受疫情持续扩散影响，短期国内化工行业普遍遭遇了运输受阻、需求萎缩、库存压力大幅上升等多重的困难。非常时期下，假期期间因担忧中国疫情的扩散导致需求大幅下滑，国际原油价格大幅下跌，成本坍塌下上游能化品种价格普遍重构，进而拖累中游化工品价格下滑。

本次突发疫情传染范围影响程度超出政府和大众预期，疫情所造成的交通管制、延迟开工、需求下降等因素对化工行业产生了较大的阶段性影响。虽然目前化工行业整体处于淡季，但是受疫情影响，化工品库存水平有明显上升，我们预计一季度化工品PPI 难以有明显改善，仍建议重点关注化工产业链下游制品及新材料环节的相关投资机会。

过去一周化工指数下跌-3.38%，同期沪深300 下跌-3.50%。过去一周化工子板块，涨幅较大的是合成革(3.48%)、氨纶(3.06%)、无机盐(0.81%)、其他橡胶制品(0.63%)、改性塑料(0.14%)。

PVC compounds provide cost benefit and per pound of PVC in small diameter pressure water pipes and fittings, over other materials, such as copper, steel or high-performance cross-linked polyethylene (PEX). Other than being cost-intensive, copper, steel or PEX are also expensive to install than PVC pipes. In these systems, the cost of installation can be as much as ten times the cost of the pipe itself, so even small differences in the ease of installation can result in large differences in the total cost of using a substitute material instead of PVC. PVC pipe holds a commanding share in large diameter pressure water and sanitary sewer pipe because of its low cost, ease of installation, long and reliable service life, and its low replacement and maintenance cost. Ductile iron and concrete are the major substitutes in these applications, and their installation costs are higher, particularly for concrete since many more pipe joints are required. Replacement and repair costs are much higher for concrete than for PVC pipe. Additional costs are also imposed by the loss of water, due to main breaks and pumping costs, which may be higher for these surrogate materials. The higher installation cost for concrete pipe also contributes to the substitution cost for PVC in storm sewers. Therefore, PVC offers a much better cost-saving option for the aforementioned applications, both in terms of material and installation.

Cold chain is a temperature-controlled supply chain with uninterrupted storage and distribution activities. Cold chains maintain a given temperature range. The cold chain market operations that are meant to ensure and extend the shelf life of fresh agricultural produce, seafood, frozen food, photographic film, chemicals, and pharmaceutical drugs are expected to rapidly increase. This rapid increase is due to the growing demand from the consumers resulting from the changing lifestyles and growing advanced technologies.  For instance, the global demand for frozen food has continued to increase, driven by the convenience for consumers. The meat segment has accounted for the largest share of the frozen food market, followed by frozen fruits, vegetables, etc.  With the increasing demand for frozen food products and the presence of highly competitive market with low margins, most of the food processors, distributors, and retailers are shifting from the manually operated obsolete facilities to the high bay deep-freeze warehouses where refrigerants are widely employed.  Moreover, the expansion of food retail chains by the multinational companies and the growth in international trade (due to trade liberalization) have led to an increase in the demand for the cold chain processes, which in turn, increase the demand for refrigerants worldwide.

Perfluoroalkoxy (PFA) comes in high purity (HP) versions that are SEMI F-57 certified for ultrapure water and liquid chemical distribution systems. PFA can be extruded in convoluted tubing forms to provide a highly flexible conduit. This fluoropolymer possesses the ability to withstand temperature environments of up to 260 °C/500 °F and can be extruded in convoluted tubing forms that provide a highly flexible conduit. This tubing aids a wide range of applications including laboratory plumbing, adhesive transfer systems, food processing, fuel, paint, and hydraulic lines. The major qualities of PFA include excellent lubricity, clarity, flexibility, and chemical resistance. The unique molecular structure of PFA HP resin reduces the metallic extractables, protects against ionic contamination, and is nonreactive with virtually all commonly encountered chemicals. Thus, high purity PFA tubing lends itself well to critical fluid transport applications that demand very low level of chemical extractables. High purity PFA possesses low gas permeability and retains its mechanical strength at high temperatures even when exposed to caustic chemicals.

Drug-delivery devices contribute significantly to the medical device market. From infusion catheter delivery systems to more complex connected products that have been making their way on to the market in the recent years, the market is expanding continuously. Manufacturers of drug-delivery devices are developing complex new products utilizing high-performance materials to meet the specified design criteria that include physical and mechanical attributes, functionality, reliability, aesthetics and ergonomics, compliance with applicable regulatory standards, and meeting cost objectives.  Drug-delivery devices are becoming increasingly complex. Functional components within these products are integral to ensuring that a device works in a consistent and reliable manner (whether on day one or after a two-year shelf life). By catering to these demands, polyoxymethylene (POM) has become critical to commercial success of the drug-delivery devices.

Increase in investments and construction activities in the residential and infrastructure sector is the primary driver for the growth of the Indonesian construction sector. Foreign direct investments in the country are expected to drive the growth of the Indonesian real estate sector. The country has eased the regulations by amending the law on public-private partnerships and passing a new land acquisition law, to make the infrastructure sector more investor-friendly. The Indonesian Ministry of Communication and Information Technology is encouraging the 100 Smart City Movement. This, in turn, is expected to propel many innovative real estate developments in the coming years. New real estate projects in the country have driven the Indonesian property sector in the past few years. The architectural layout of the capital city, Jakarta, has attracted various investors from around the world.

Superabsorbent polymers are used as an absorbent, as they can absorb up to 300 times of their weight in aqueous fluids. Owing to characteristics, such as protecting the skin against drying, irritation, and infections, the largest use of superabsorbent polymers is in personal hygiene products, which include feminine hygiene products, diapers, and adult incontinence products. The governments in different countries are continuously collaborating with various NGOs, media center, and various companies, to educate people about personal hygiene management. The motive behind these initiatives is to keep the environment cleaner and safer and to avoid the spread of various diseases. According to the World Health Organization, every year, around 15 million babies are born in the world and this number is increasing. With the rising infant born rate and increasing awareness toward hygiene of a baby, the demand for superabsorbent polymers is increasing.

The North America compound management market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2019 - 2027. The market of compound management in the North America region is majorly contributed by the US. The region is experiencing the robust growth of the market owing to increase in the number of clinical trials along with an increase in R&D expenses made by pharmaceutical companies. The top 10 industry players operating in the market of Compound management across the globe include, , Brooks Life Sciences, Tecan Trading AG, Hamilton Company, TTP Labtech, Frontier Scientific Services, Biosero Inc., Evotec, Icagen, Inc., Wuxi Apptec, and TCG Lifesciences Pvt. Ltd.

Historically, there have been instances of men and women using hair wigs and extensions for several purposes including trying out different hairstyles, using colored hair to change their appearance, and covering bald patches of the head. Currently, hair loss is a serious health issue. Hectic lifestyles and improper consumption of essential nutrients have adverse effects on the human body. From invisible effects such as general weakness, reduced stamina, sleep problems, and hectic lifestyles can cause several hair problems. Alopecia, receding hairline, and pattern baldness are more common in men while hair thinning is more common among women.

本周我们分析疫情对化妆品行业的影响。回顾2003 年非典时期，从数据上看，与其他可选消费品相比，非典时期化妆品表现相对较为稳定，5 月受疫情影响明显。4、5 月份化妆品零售额分别同比增长20.3%、14.6%，增速均同比有所提升。但5 月份增速在全年排名倒数第二。2004 年5 年受益疫情低基数，化妆品增速达37.6%，为2001 年以来单月最高，明显看出疫情对化妆品月度零售带来错位影响。我们认为一方面是行业自身发展节奏的体现，本土品牌密集成立期+CS 开始黄金十年，共同瞄准中低线城市消费升级。另一方面化妆品并非全部受损，部分品类如个人清洁、消毒类产品在疫情中利好，洗护类产品存在一定刚性。

维持行业强于大市评级。2019年以来化工产品价格普遍回落，多家公司2019年业绩预喜。预计未来行业集中度将持续提升，龙头企业有望获得更多市场份额与更高盈利水平。

1 月8 日，北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心在北京举行2020 年度能源经济预测与展望研究报告发布会，对外发布了《经济承压背景下中国能源经济发展与展望》《2020 年光伏及风电产业前景预测与展望》《2020 年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测》等6 份研究报告。

造纸板块：生活用纸>包装用纸>文化用纸。文化纸方面，现阶段双胶纸需求集中在药品说明书以及政府文件印刷领域，出版社招标预计将会延迟；03年各种报刊杂志及海报宣传仍较盛行，且SARS期间有较多卫生宣传海报与报纸也对铜版纸和新闻纸的需求形成了支撑；但目前随着互联网的普及，上述现象将不复存在，文化纸价格面临较大压力；包装纸方面，药品包装盒较多采用白卡纸，快递增多也将刺激箱板瓦楞纸的需求。但疫情对出口的影响依然值得长期关注，此外包装纸整体与经济景气度密切相关，若疫情形成对经济明显冲击，亦将对整个包装纸行业形成负面影响。生活用纸方面，产品具备必选消费属性，在轻工行业中受影响相对最小，且消毒类湿巾需求大增，关注中顺洁柔。