每周随笔， 《王者荣耀》研究报告发布关注国内手游市场付费潜力提升。《王者荣耀》、《阴阳师》等头部产品景气度高，行业整体增长强劲。但目前，随着智能手机的广泛普及，我们认为用户红利已经逐渐接近尾声。未来每位用户付费能力的提升将是驱动手游行业增长的关键。

本周传媒指数上涨 4.10%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.53 个百分点，在申万 28 个一级子行业指数中排名第七。本月传媒指数上 涨 2.01%，落后沪深 300指数 4.53个百分点。本周传媒估值上涨 7.65%，细分板块估值普遍上涨。

2017 年 6 月 5 日至 9 日，苹果召开 WWDC2017，宣布将对 AppStore 改版。具体变化包括改变标签页陈列方式，取消畅销榜、强化搜索功能和竞价广告（ASM）机制。本报告将对 App Store 规则变化及其影响进行分析。

我们认为，今年游戏龙头企业业绩确定性强，稳健内生增速与市场风格契合。随着后续估值切换以及资金对于板块的聚焦效应，龙头公司有望在 17H2获得估值水平的提升。下周（6.19~6.25） 票房主力预计为《变形金刚 5：最后的骑士》，此电影系列前四部的内地票房高达 37 亿元。近期，第23 届上海电视节与第 20 届上海电影节分别在上海拉开帷幕。优酷、蓝港影业、完美世界等众多影视传媒公司于近期举办发布会，公布 2017 年片单。

全球游戏市场增速逐步放缓，游戏龙头股价却屡创新高。目前游戏公司 2017年 PE 估值倍数约为 10-30X 区间，其中行业龙头、平台级公司能有 30X 以上估值，纯研发小厂估值最低仅为 10X 左右。龙头公司今年 30%的预期净利润（Non-GAAP）增速并不能完全解释今年普遍 60%以上的涨幅。海外游戏龙头公司上涨更多是由估值水平提升驱动，而非预期净利润提升。涨幅较大的公司的特点包括：行业龙头、近几年业绩增速稳定、研发能力出众、IP 资源丰富。

我们认为下半年传媒板块将延续 L 型寻底趋势，人口红利消退使得行业整体增速放缓，未来行业格局将进一步分化。我们仍然看好传媒行业特别是内容产业未来的发展潜力，而精品化趋势以及付费盈利模式逐渐兴起之下，内容产业门槛提升，龙头公司有望迎来重要发展窗口期，推荐关注各细分行业龙头：完美世界、三七互娱、光线传媒、华策影视等。对于营销行业，2017 年年报披露后营销板块商誉减值风险将靴子落地，年底前后是营销板块的配置时点。目前行业格局略微沉闷，我们认为政策有望成为下一波行业推动力量，关注“一带一路”文化走出去以及电影引进片制度改革。

根据腾讯娱乐报道，微影时代携多家国内公司组成强大的保底阵容，为《变形金刚 5》开出了 26 亿的保底金额，创下中国电影市场保底发行新高，也成为首部被保底的进口分账片，由此证明行业对《变形金刚 5》 的认可程度。该片将于6月23日在中国内地上映。

电影产业方面，上半月优质影片缺乏，下半月重归增长。爆款电影《加勒比海盗 5：死无对证》和黑马《摔跤吧！爸爸》是下半月票房逆转上涨的主要原因。根据 6 月片单情况，国产片仍以小成本制作为主，预计票房表现依旧较乏力，预计 6 月份电影市场票房主要由进口片带动。院线方面，2017 年 5 月全国院线票房冠军仍为万达院线。

In the lottery, a winner is randomly selected by drawing of lots. Gambling requires skills and chances both; however, lottery requires chance alone. The probability of winning becomes higher if a person buys more than one lot. These lots are generally in the form of tickets, and the prizes associated with lottery are mostly, but not limited to, money, precious metals, trips, and real estate. The governments of many countries consider the lottery to be illegal unless a skill is required, whereas a few governments allow the lottery to promote fundraising for charitable organizations. As lottery is governed by local, state, and national laws, regulations differ in different countries, as well as states.

MMA as a sport has been slowly gaining popularity with increasing participation in fitness MMA, especially by women in developed countries like the US. In the US, the participation in fitness MMA is more from women while men engage more in MMA. Since fitness MMA helps burn 590-600 calories during a 45-minute session, more people, especially women, are taking up the sport. Increasing concern regarding head injury, due to the lack of mandatory regulations regarding the use of headgear for MMA players above the age of 18 years, is hindering the market growth to a certain extent.

Lacrosse is a team sport in which players try to score points by getting a rubber ball into a long lacrosse stick with a net. They run, carry, catch, shoot, and pass the ball with the net of the stick, just to finally reach the goal. Lacrosse has many benefits associated with it in terms of exercise and competitiveness as the game involves a lot of running, speed, and endurance. The sport is popularly known as the fastest game on two feet. The need for protective gears is important in lacrosse sport apart from lacrosse sticks and balls because there are lots of risk to injury in the sport. Protective gears include helmet, shoulder pads, arm pads, elbow pads, athletic cup, mouth guard, face mask, and eyewear.

Skating gained prominence as a means of recreation activity and a sport in The Fens in England. Today, there are a number of recreational sports that fall within the purview of games that can be played on ice. A few of these sports are ice hockey, curling, speed skating, figure skating, bandy, ringette, tour skating, ice cross downhill, and barrel jumping. This report covers ice skating equipment used for recreational purposes and for speed skating.

Gaming simulators are considered the super-category of video games. The main purpose of these simulators is to simulate various aspects of the virtual world through real-world motions. This would require the optimal use of software and hardware platforms. The software platform ensures an accurate mapping between the gaming movement inside the virtual world and the gamer input in the real world. The hardware platform ensures a swift interface that can attract the crowd. The addition of motion detection in simulators is one of the biggest innovations, especially in the hardware segment. The feedback received from virtual world obstacles should accurately be converted into physical movements of the simulator. The quality of hardware will depend on the same.

回顾传媒行业，截至 2017 年 05 月 31 日 A 股 27 个子行业涨跌幅中传媒从2016年11月跌幅倒数第一 24.6%收窄至跌幅倒数第五 13.5%。2016年政策对游戏、影视内容等借壳、跨行业并购的收紧，以及细分行业中部分公司前期外延并购标的业绩不及预期、商誉减值等导致2016 年全年传媒行业跌幅最大。

上周中信餐饮旅游指数下跌 0.86%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深 300 指数 0.25个百分点和 0.74 个百分点。中证体育指数上涨 1.31%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深 300 指数 2.43 个百分点和 2.92 个百分点。旅游类标的涨幅前三是西安饮食（6.98%）、长白山（6.75%）以及九华旅游（6.02%）；体育类标的涨幅前三是三夫户外（10.11%）、平潭发展（9.09%）以及双象股份（6.61%）。