Liquid packaging cartons are conventional packaging materials, which are widely used in the food & beverages industry. Rapid urbanization increase in popularity of packaged foods, and several benefits associated with the use of such cartons such as convenience in utility & eco-friendly disposal fuel their adoption in the market. The global liquid packaging carton market is segmented based on type, shelf life, end-use sector, and region. The report focuses on the types of liquid packaging cartons such as brick liquid cartons, gable top cartons, and shaped liquid cartons. The report highlights the factors that impact the growth of the liquid packaging carton market such as trends, drivers, restraints, and the role of different key players. In addition, it includes detailed market segmentation based on shelf life (long and short shelf life cartons) and the end use sectors (liquid dairy products, non-carbonated soft drinks, liquid foods, and alcoholic drinks). However, the report does not provide data in terms of both value and volume for flexible and corrugated cartons.

废纸系龙头历史上依靠进口外废，“原料为王”决定企业盈利能力。根据生产主料的不同，造纸行业可分为废纸系和木浆系，两者产量比例约6：3，其中废纸系原纸行业年产量达6465 万吨，近5 年CAGR 达1.3%，成品纸供需格局稳定。受原料进口政策限制，18 年行业增速同减8.7%。从成本端来看，10-18 年“废纸系”造纸行业原料中进口外废与国废的比例由6：4 升至3：1，由于外废价格更低，使用外废生产能够大幅提升造纸企业的单吨盈利能力，原料转换和成本上行推动产业整合。

相较于美国成熟市场，中国造纸行业尚处于成熟阶段初期，规模与增速受限于落后产能过剩以及经济增速放缓等因素而呈现缓慢增长的现象。作为需求导向的行业，尽管生活用纸偏向必选需求具备一定抗周期能力，但包装纸需求受经济周期影响较大且与GDP 增速高度相关，因此造纸行业整体呈现出一定程度的周期性特征。

本周观点：外部宏观环境不确定背景下，继续把握内需导向的核心资产，下游需求稳定，行业竞争格局优化，龙头护城河优势显著；重点关注包装和轻工消费领域。内销家居板块业绩一季度探底，后续有望逐季修复，在估值底部区域附近值得长期布局。