While the largest restraint to any new entrant into the global insect feed market is the regulatory framework, many potential investors are troubled by the legislative hurdles. However, since insect farming for animal feed produces hundreds of times more protein feedstock from a single hectare of land compared to traditional sources, the existent political objections are starting to fade out. This indicates that the threat of new entrants is settling at medium. In regions like Australia, where the livestock industry mainly relies on conventional protein sources, like soybean meal and lupin seeds, the insect feed concept is mostly in the nascent stage. Although in markets like Australia the threat of substitutes is very high, the threat of substitutes in the Sub-Saharan Africa, where the insect feed inculcation into the animal feed is not very nascent, is moderate.

农林牧渔行业2019 年实现收入5475 亿元，yoy+6.42%；20Q1 实现收入1277 亿元，yoy+5.64%。自19Q2 起，行业盈利逐步恢复，19Q2-20Q1连续四个季度净利润率同比增加5 个百分点以上，近三个季度净利润率均达到11%以上。我们认为20 年牧原股份、海大集团等公司业绩有望稳健增长并巩固行业龙头地位，中牧股份业绩有望迎来拐点，瑞普生物受益于后周期，天康生物拥有养殖+疫苗双动能，有望展现业绩弹性，建议关注。

2019年净利润翻倍，2020Q1盈利空间扩大。2019年， 农林牧渔行业实现营收5461.26亿元，同比+15.57%；实现净利润453.07 亿元，同比+198.35%。2020年Q1，营收和净利润分别同比+16.29%和 +402.95%。利润暴增是猪肉价格高位运行带动养殖板块业绩上行所致。

虽然我国能繁母猪存栏量处于环比上行趋势，但是由于我国仍存在较大的猪肉供给缺口，加上母猪存栏恢复以及产能释放均需要较长时间，因此我们预计国内生猪价格有望在2 季度维持高位。与此同时，对于不少养殖企业而言，由于季节性因素和留种等原因，1 季度为全年出栏量低点，后续有望呈现逐渐回升的态势。由于生猪养殖板块2020 年上半年业绩的同比基数仍然相对较低，因此生猪板块2020 年Q2 业绩有望呈现“环比明显趋好、同比大幅增长”的趋势。