Globally, the demand for convenience foods is growing at a faster pace due to changes in social and economical patterns, as well as increased expenditure of food and beverage, awareness about healthy foods, changes in meal patterns and existing food habits, and the desire to taste new products. The United States is the largest market for convenience foods in the world, and the emerging markets of Asia- Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America are projected to see future growth for the same. On-the-go snacking is becoming extremely popular, especially among the working-class people, teenage children, people living in hostels, and bachelors due to their hectic lifestyles. Moreover, the on-the-go snacking concept is closely associated with easy consumption and handling of products, which snack bars offer. Thus, the demand for snack bars is increasing due to the linked convenience of consumption, aided by disposable packaging that prevents the bars from coming in contact with hands, keeping them clean to work, simultaneously. Presently, consumers are allocating less time for traditional grocery shopping, due to busier schedules. Due to the same, they are also not able to take out time for proper meals and, therefore, opt for on-the-go snack bars in order to satisfy their hunger.

猪价仍将高位运转，市场悲观情绪浓厚，关注长期成长及转型标的。当前猪周期顶部已现，但缺口仍存，我们判断猪价至明年上半年仍较高水平运行，伴随头部公司养殖成本持续回落，养殖盈利依旧可观。关注出栏增速高、自养成本领先的生猪养殖标的牧原股份(002714，未评级)、新希望(000876，未评级)；此外关注温氏股份(300498，买入)出栏、成本的预期差机会；相关标的还有傲农生物(603363，未评级)、正邦科技(002157，未评级)、天康生物(002100，未评级)等。

我们认为今年酒企普遍更为理性，库存、量价政策等方面表现较好，预计今年提价效应叠加旺季动销恢复均将使得三季度报表业绩进一步环比改善，批价走势及动销将为重要观测点。

下半年乳制品需求景气度回升+供给紧平衡，原奶大概率进入涨价周期，行业促销力度减弱，竞争格局边际改善，龙头盈利弹性有望持续释放。秋季建议关注需求景气回升+竞争格局趋缓带来基本面边际改善，估值相对合理的乳制品板块。调味品短期确实面临回调降估值的压力，但中长期看，调味品赛道因刚需性强、空间大、现金流好、行业竞争格局较好、增长确定性高等优势仍将被赋予合理的估值溢价，龙头尤甚。短期波动并不改变板块的长期投资逻辑，建议回调中择机布局。

华创食饮团队于9 月8 日，携手白酒、啤酒、乳业、保健品等行业专家，举办行业论坛，结合产业发展趋势，共同探讨资本市场热点与投资机会，本文是论坛内容精选。产业端看，白酒价格带加速换挡，区域龙头出省开启新阶段，啤酒行业高端化提速，乳业新国标或开启行业新赛道，功能食品休闲化趋势渐显。

白酒：茅台保持高增，高端酒线上表现亮眼。2020 年8 月，阿里线上渠道白酒销售额5.38 亿元，同比+67.40%。分品牌看，茅台、泸州老窖、五粮液市占率分别为29.2/6.3/5.2%。

中报回顾看，白酒板块整体企稳，Q2改善明显，高端表现最靓丽。大众品板块，部分疫情受益股Q2延续高增长，疫情受损公司环比改善，其中乳制品以及餐饮相关的调味品、啤酒板块恢复更快。9月中秋序幕逐渐拉开，白酒环比改善明显，且估值性价比最高，继续加大推荐白酒板块，同时推荐疫情受损恢复弹性大的啤酒及乳业板块，关注调味品回落中的布局机会。

白酒：重点推荐复苏弹性比较大的二三线标的，如今世缘、古井贡酒、山西汾酒等，当前高端茅五泸估值性价比在白酒内部已经开始显现，建议在批价松动、股价回调时大胆布局，对于中报超预期的舍得酒业、Q3 弹性大的水井坊、酒鬼酒，重点关注，对于低估值、改善逻辑明显的洋河股份建议左侧布局。

8月28日，招商食品饮料团队邀请到了亚洲渔港董秘夏珊珊女士，以餐饮供应链发展趋势为主题展开对话。亚洲渔港主要从事生鲜食材供应链的服务，行业深耕近20年，是水产行业中迅速崛起的一股力量。对话中，夏总对行业趋势、疫情后相关企业应对措施及未来发展都做了充实的分享，下面就让我们一起来聆听来自餐饮供应链产业最真实的声音！