The global zinc market is highly fragmented, with primary and secondary smelters accounting for 56% of the market. China is the global leader in the manufacture of zinc in 2016. Other prominent suppliers of zinc are Australia, India, South Korea, Japan, and Central and South America. Hindustan Zinc and Binani Industries are the major zinc manufacturers in India. Even though the smelting capacity is high, the actual supply of zinc is less than the rated capacity due to the increasing depletion of mines. This will negatively impact the zinc supply in Southeast Asia and Europe. Smelters around the world are facing supply deficiency since 2011. This has resulted in a reduction in capacity utilization of the production plants. Capacity expansion will be done on a large scale by smelters in China during the forecast period. Expansion projects such as Greenfield and Brownfield investments will be carried out in countries such as South Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan, and India to increase the smelting capacity.

本周伦铜跌 2.17%，收于 6770 美元/吨。沪铜走势相同，跌 2.49%，收于 52880 元/吨。库存方面，LME 库存继续下降，单周减少 2.07 万吨，下降幅度为 10.12%。沪铜库存微涨 2.53%， COMEX 铜库存基本不变。预计未来铜供给增速不及消费增速，铜供需趋紧，坚定看好铜价的上涨空间。推荐关注洛阳钼业、江西铜业、云南铜业。 

基本金属的价格有望稳中有升，在环保日趋严格，供给侧改革继续的情况下，产量出现大幅增加的可能性较小，量价齐升出现的可能性较小。在盈利状况改善的情况下，投资冲动又得到抑制，企业的资金流向可能只有两个：并购行业成熟的优良资产或者还债修复资产负债表。并购会让行业利润进一步向上市公司集中；负债率的降低有望让企业的长期盈利能力得到提升。伴随着市场在18 年对于这一过程更加清晰的理解，有色金属上市公司的估值有望继续得到提升。

从历史数据上看，美国减税后利好私人消费与企业投资，在中期将有效拉动美国经济增长。从目前美国资本货物出货量的同比增速，以及美联储所做的企业资本支出的调研，包括美国重卡销售量等数据，都表明美国正处于新一轮制造业投资扩张周期中。

美国税改在 12 月 2 日出现突破性进展，共和党税改法案获参议院足够票数通过，这标志着美国 1986 年来第一次实现了参众两院分别通过了重大税务修改方案，虽然接下来仍需美国两院协商弥合分歧，但考虑到共和党在两院的压倒性优势和争取明年中期选举的诉求，我们对美国税改落地持乐观态度。