从当前国内生产形势和需求形势来看，由于粮食生产持续稳定推进、生产气候条件相对有利，2013年粮食仍有望增产。农业部调查显示，2013年国内粮食种植的意向面积同比增长0.61%，为全年粮食增产奠定了良好基础。同时，政府对农业的支持力度不减，1季度第一产业投资增速继续保持对第二、三产业的遥遥领先，预计全年增速将维持在30%的水平，累计投资额将达到1.2万亿元，创历史新高。但是，值得警惕和关注的是，宏观经济难以迅速改善可能导致部分农产品需求相对疲软，不利于市场行情的好转，加上各类疫情、食品安全事件频发，部分品种的年内价格波动可能相对较大，从而对社会产生较大影响。

BMI Supply View: China is a key player on the world grain stage, given the size of its production and its growing consumption. Corn is the most important grain in the country. We estimate 2012/13 corn output to have grown by a robust 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 207.0mn tonnes on the back of expansion in area harvested. Corn acreage has reportedly risen by 1.2% on the year to 35.0mn hectares (ha) as high prices boosted planting by farmers, especially small-scale farmers. As reflected in a recent survey, 61% of farmers in the Liaoning region had less than 1ha of farmland, up from 58% a year ago, while farms larger than 8ha rose to 4% from 2%.

2012年，随着畜禽产品价格的稳步回落，农产品价格整体涨幅趋缓，相比较2011年基本持平，在蔬菜等产品价格波动较大的带动下，农产品价格年中呈现出了一定的波动，但总体平稳。2012年四季度随着猪肉价格的反弹，农产品价格表现出一定的涨势，但到了2013年一季度，随着猪肉价格进一步进入下跌通道，农产品价格增速应声回落，环比呈现一定跌幅。

BMI Supply View:Chinais a key player on the world grain stage, given the size of its production and its growing consumption. Corn is the most important grain in the country. We estimate 2011/12 corn output to have grown by a robust 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) on the back of expansion in area harvested. Corn acreage hasreportedly risen by 2.6% on the year to 33.4mn hectares (ha) as high prices boosted planting by farmers, especially small-scale farmers. As reflected in a recent survey, 61% of farmers in the Liaoning region had less than 1ha of farmland, up from 58% a year ago, while farms larger than 8ha rose to 4% from 2%.

BMI Supply View:Chinais a key player on the world grains stage given the size of its production and its growing consumption. Corn is the most important grain in the country, and we estimate 2011/12 corn output grew by a robust 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) on the back of expansion in area harvested.