6 月，食品行业生产稳中略升，食品制造业工业企业增加值同比增长5%；农副食品加工业企业增加值同比增长5.9%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业企业增加值同比增长8.4%。行业固定资产投资增速持续负增长。其中，农副食品加工业投资同比减少2.8%；食品制造业投资同比减少0.3%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业投资同比减少7.9%。

China has reduced import tariffs on 187 goods, including infant-formula, spirits, seafood and other products, in a bid to encourage domestic spending as the country strives to become a consumption-driven economy. Tariffs for some baby formula products will be cut to zero from 20% as a result of the new rules, benefitting global brands like Danone and Nestle that are competing for a leading share of China's lucrative infant formula market. The move will help lower the price point of major international brands in China compared with other countries globally, thereby reducing the incentive for consumers to make purchases overseas or via unofficial channels. China's Yili Group has expressed its intention to acquire a majority stake in Pakistan Dairy company Fauji Foods, known for its Nurpur brand, according to a notice sent to the Pakistan Stock Exchange in August 2018.

The Czech Republic's highly developed food market is one of the most mature in the region. The meat and dairy sectors lead the processing industry, followed by edible oils and fruits and vegetables, with the food-processing industry accounting for more than 15% of the country's industrial output.

The food and beverage industry is well developed, and leading international operators have a strong and growing presence. In total, there are around 45,000 registered food-processing companies, ranging from small- and medium-sized companies to major multinationals. In 2015, the Brazilian food processing industry grossed USD168.3bn, which represented approximately 9.5% of the country's GDP.

According to Egypt's Export Council for Food Industries, food exports during H1 2018 totalled USD1.44bn, led by frozen vegetables (USD191mn), soft drinks (USD187mn) and cheese (USD139m). Arab countries accounted for the largest share of the exports of Egyptian food industries by 52%, worth USD753mn, followed by the EU with 15% of total exports (USD213mn). The Egyptian parliament approved a draft law in April 2018 to regulate the country's large informal food vending sector. The draft law aims to comprehensively legalise mobile food carts by granting operating licenses from administrative authorities. Egypt is the fourth-largest halal food market globally, behind Indonesia, Turkey, and Pakistan.

A large tourism sector fuels consumption in a number of food and drink sectors, including soft and alcoholic drinks. Across the region, any fluctuations in tourism levels have a noticeable impact on the premium alcoholic drinks sector, where the majority of consumption can be attributed to affluent tourists. In the food sector, segments that are particularly reliant on the tourist dollar include convenience and brand-name products from the US.

In 2018, Croatian Chamber of Commerce conducted a national survey of dietary habits the country. The survey found that per capita consumption of meat and fish in Croatia was among the lowest in the EU. Podravka is one of the largest conglomerates in the country, as well as regionally, with production facilities located in Croatia, Slovenia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, as well as most recently in the US. In March 2018, Poland-based Enterprise Investors signed an agreement to acquire a 65% stake in Croatian baked goods company Pan Pek. New owners plan to invest in an expansion of Pan Pek's retail operations.

宏观经济或将面临滞胀风险，经济放缓白酒承压，大众必需消费品受益通胀，建议优选抗通胀的食品龙头公司。重点推荐：大众品：白云山、绝味食品、涪陵榨菜、好想你、中炬高新、伊利股份；酒类：山西汾酒、泸州老窖、贵州茅台、古井贡酒。 

1H18、2Q18 调味品营收+14.1%、14.9%，归母净利+23.5%、27%。2Q18 营收增速同比降 3.9pct：主因行业 1H17 提价、经销商提前拿货，双因素导致 2Q17 基数较高，此外宏观经济放缓，城镇居民人均消费性支出、城镇&乡村社零增速均下滑，消费增速承压对调味品增长或亦有一定影响。2Q18 业绩增速呈分化态势：细分行业龙头海天、中炬、涪陵收入&利润均实现快速增长。2Q18 调味品盈利能力较快提升：ROE 6%，同比+0.4pct，毛利率42.2%，同比+2pct，净利率 20.1%，同比+1.3pct。

整体来看白酒行业上半年继续较高景气，高端白酒龙头业绩表现稳健，以符合及超预期为主，茅台预收款释放带动收入加速，五粮液、洋河Q2 亦业绩提速；次高端白酒部分公司 Q2 控货带来收入增速放缓，已在预期内，业绩维持高增长主要来自净利率稳步提升；部分区域及低端酒品牌表现继续亮眼，古井继续加速，口子与今世缘表现不俗，低端酒牛栏山加速放量带动顺鑫再超预期，白酒净利率提升可期。白酒进入旺季关注加大，增速换挡周期拉长，稳健成长可期。

18 年 1-8月食品饮料板块-7.5%，市场排名 3/28。其中调味品（+18.9%）、食品综合（+6.4%）涨幅领先，且获正收益。食品板块 1-8 月 PE 较 17 年下降 33%，预计 18 年净利增长 36%，两者共同作用，年初至今股价略下降 7.5%。从个股涨跌幅看，17 年涨幅不大、有业绩的食品细分子行业龙头成为最大赢家。7-8月食品板块股价-12.0%，市场排名 24，跑输大盘。往下半年展望，旺季备货与三季报披露即将到来，业绩很可能再度成为市场关注焦点，估值已回落至合理区间，食品饮料板块仍然是市场的好选择。

201 8H1 轻工制造行业上市公司实现主营业务收入 2314 亿元，同比增长 2 0.3%。家用轻工、造纸、包装印刷板块 2018H1 营收分别增长 22.6%、20.7%、16.7%。同期轻工制造行业上市公司合计实现归母净利润171.7 亿元，同比增长11.6%，其中造纸板块增速达28.7%，领跑轻工制造行业。家用轻工板块和包装印刷板块增速分别为-0.9%和7.7%。

按申万食品饮料分类，目前 93 家公司 2018 年中报已披露完毕，上半年实现营收 2976.25 亿元，同增 16.64%；归母净利 529.49亿元，同增 31.87%。分季度看：收入端，18Q2 实现营收 1372.22亿元，同增 16.00%，增速同比提升 1.46pct，环比下降 1.21pct；归母净利端，18Q2 食品饮料板块合计实现归母净利 218.06 亿元，同增 33.28%，增速环比提升 2.45pct。分板块看 2018 年中报，营收端增速排序为：白酒>软饮料>调味发酵品>乳品>食品综合>葡萄酒>肉制品>黄酒>啤酒>其他酒类，归母净利端增速：白酒>软饮料>调味发酵品>肉制品>食品综合>啤酒>乳品>黄酒>葡萄酒>其他酒类。

中报收官，龙头优势愈发显著，食品板块强者更强。乳品，龙头持续收割市场份额，行业竞争短期加剧。调味品，龙头表现稳健，行业集中度提升。肉类加工，受益于猪价下降，上市公司净利提速。其他食品 ，2 季度增速环比有所放缓，但收入仍实现较快增长。投资建议：18 年下半年重点关注伊利股份，同时建议适当关注中炬高新、双汇发展。