Globally, freight ton kilometers (FTKs) declined by 3.2% year-on-year in July 2019, reflecting the widespread softness in world trade and a number of economic indicators. The weakness in air freight volumes remained broad-based across regions. While the largest decline was witnessed in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Africa went against the trend to record double-digit year- on-year FTK growth. The growth of the industry-wide air freight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in July, but it is still well below the average monthly pace (5.3%). With capacity continuing to outpace the demand, the freight load factor has eased by 2.7% over the past twelve months. Air cargo volumes remained weak in July.

The demand for various sizes of beer, and benefits, like one-time consumption, have made beer a preferred option for a wide range of consumers, thereby, driving the growth of the beer packaging industry. Beer remained a unique beverage and has poised several packaging challenges, due to which the manufacturers have not swayed away from traditional packaging methods. The usage of PET bottles has been one area where the packaging companies have tried to offer the beer manufacturers. But the solution was considered only for exceptional cases. Heineken had first attempted to use PET bottles during the Olympic games in 2012, held in London, but this solution was driven by safety concerns over rioting, during the games. The company is experimenting again with pet bottles in 2019. The company plans to launch two new PET beer bottle designs, which are created using PET Engineering’s interchangeable insert system.

Plastic production is growing at a rapid pace worldwide as its application areas are increasing in number. The inherent advantages of plastic such as lightweight nature, ease of availability, and flexibility in its shape have made plastic the most sought-after material in a wide range of applications. The packaging industry has one of the largest application areas for synthetic plastics, with demand ranging over 45% in 2018. With a production volume of over 370 million tonnes in 2018, the usage and adoption of plastic are penetrating all major  industries in one form or the other. China is the largest producer of plastics, followed by Europe, and is expected to retain its dominant positions during the forecast period.

Australia is one of the fastest growing packaging markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Presence of large packaging companies such as Amcor, drive investments for innovation and research and development activities in the country. Major trends in Australia for plastic packaging on consumption end incline toward the demographics and demand for convenience packaging. The country witnessed a surge in population, representing millennials than baby boomers as per Australian Bureau Statistics. This is expected to drive the demand for more consumables like beverages, packaged and ready meals, packaged drinking water, convenience packages like microwave and oven safe, among others, which prefer plastic packaging medium over other alternatives owing high portability enabled by light weight of the plastics.

The flexible plastic packaging dominated the global flexible packaging market as there are numerous polymer resins that can be used to create newer packaging. The polymer prices fluctuation is an area of concern for the flexible plastic packaging as raw materials (films and resins) constitutes more than 50% of the net sales. However, the market can pass on these to  customers with price increases. Although the materials used are of low cost, the huge volumes used by the market tends to make a small price fluctuation to have a big impact on the market.

11 月南航、东航国内线客座率提升明显，料需求环比改善，关注春节前客流叠加效应。Q4 三大航汇兑收益或超10 亿，成本端同比改善持续，关注低估值高弹性的三大航。11 月深圳机场国际客流同比大幅增长41%，未来3 年有望增长至千万国际枢纽，首都和上机地区客流继续保持下行趋势。

1-11 月快递品牌集中度指数CR8 为82.3，环比上升0.4 个百分点，同比提升1.23 个百分点，行业集中度持续提升。一般来说，旺季业务量峰值期间，头部企业因产能限制业务量会有所溢出，CR8 会出现下滑，而今年头部企业持续提升运力投入，产能得到大幅提升。随着中小快递企业的相继倒闭，市场份额继续向头部企业集中。

在内外部环境的影响下，单季GDP增速从2018Q1的6.8%下降至2019Q3的6%。但快递行业单量增速一直维持在较高增长状态，尤其是剔除掉包含春节的2018Q1、2019Q1后，单季同比增速稳定在25%左右。

交运板块从年初至今（20191213）上涨13.82%，跑输沪深300指数17.98%，位列第20/29。机场板块一枝独秀（涨幅54.05%），主要是估值驱动，看好机场免税潜力。展望2020 年，机场已经实现估值切换，对比海外龙头，我们认为公路、铁路、航空板块龙头估值有折价，有望迎来价值重估，重点关注各板块龙头企业，对于高弹性品种需择时而动。

国家邮政局公布11 月份行业数据，11 月快递业务量完成71.2 亿件，同比增长21.5%，其中同城、异地、国际件业务量分别同增-9.5%、30.2%和30.0%，单件收入分别同增-15.9%、-5.5%和12.5%，东、中、西部地区业务量分别同增20.1%、34.4%和15.3%；行业CR8为82.3，同比提升1.0%。

据民航局披露，11 月全行业共完成旅客运输量 5305.8 万人次，同比增长 6.0%，其中国内、国际航线同比分别增长 4.7%、17.3%；正班客座率为 81.5%。 

考虑到收入端免税销售额降速，成本端卫星厅投产冲击；预计上海机场将在 19Q3-20Q1 迎来免税、业绩、预期的三重低点，伴随着免税扰动的逐步消除以及多次换季后卫星厅人流改善，公司业绩将于 2020 年 Q2 重新步入改善通道。精品开发将成日上在上海机场卫星厅的重大战略方向，预计精品店将在 2020 年底逐步开启。

预计2020年中国免税业将迎来政策的进一步放宽，包括国人市内免税、口岸入境免税购物限额提升等政策或有望落地，为国旅业绩带来潜在政策弹性。中期而言，中国免税业的内部竞争在局部或有变化，然而龙头公司依托先发优势和规模，仍将在未来数年行业高速增长期中尽享政策红利；长期看，较低的居民境内免税购物渗透率奠定行业广阔增长空间，龙头公司自身效率改善也将为盈利能力的边际向好提供可能。

11 月,快递件量增速同比放缓2.7pcts 至21.6%，连续两月增速放缓，预计今年行业增速同增25%，而明年增速换降至20~23%区间。10 月行业价格刚有缓和迹象，11 月同城+异地ASP 跌幅便同比扩大1.8pcts 至7.4%，其中广州地区更是出现今年以来首次月度价格下跌情况。行业价格旺季不旺，头部企业正面的存量竞争已经开始。

近几年社会服务行业增速在宏观经济下行背景也有回落，不过包括社服在内的多 数消费行业龙头正在享受集中度提升，盈利能力向好的优势。我们认为，社服各个 子行业免税、酒店、旅游、教育龙头公司中长期仍具有较好的成长性，并且从全球 消费龙头PB-ROE 分布来看，社服龙头整体偏低，估值仍有提升空间。我们继续 看好增长确定性较强的免税行业，开店延续高增长周期性减弱的酒店行业，受益于 政策规范集中度提升的教育行业，以及部分品牌优势及成长能力较强的景区和 OTA 龙头公司。

客座率因其等于需求量与供给量之比而被认为是分析航空周期的核心指标，市场一度认为高客座率将为航司带来高盈利。但多角度对比来看，行业与各航司客座率波动幅度非常小，难以解释航司业绩的大幅波动。究其原因，航司已普遍采取“收益管理策略”，航司为实现收入最大化已将客座率作为先行指标固定，以票价的波动来迎合供需关系变化。仅靠客座率一项难以准确描述航空景气度，衡量周期亟需新指标。