Welcome to Deloitte’s annual Global Powers of Retailing report. This report marks the 20th year of identifying the 250 largest retailers around the world and analyzing their performance across geographies,sectors, and channels.Over the last 20 years we have seen a seismic shift in retail and the customers that retailers serve.Consider that in 1997, the inaugural year of this report,today’s average Amazon Prime customer was just 16 years old, AOL was pioneering social media, and handheld virtual pets were the hottest-selling toys.Today, handheld (or wearable) digital devices are ubiquitous and a younger, social customer has come ofage. We are living in an era where customers are in the driver’s seat more than ever before and they are craving authenticity, newness, convenience, and creativity. We are living in the customer-driven economy.

The sales in department stores in Germany are declining owing to the growth of other retail formats like discount stores, shopping malls, and e-commerce websites. Players like Hertie, Horten, Wehmeyer, and Bilka that were popular among generations of German shoppers have shut down operations. Closures of moredepartment stores in the country are likely to occur during the forecast period. Such closures will offer opportunities for urban development and for retailers with othersuccessful formats like shopping malls as these stores are located at very busy and centralized locations.Online retailing is becoming increasingly popular among customers, particularly in the mid-market consumer segment. However, the in-store shopping experiences are still important for purposes of touch and feel, information collection, and purchases. Thus, omnichannel retailing is an emerging trend in the market.

2016H2 及鸡年春节消费均有所回暖，经济企稳及房地产调控有望推动鸡年消费持续升温，同时进入年报披露期，建议四主线选股：1. 业绩高成长估值合理的新零售龙头：永辉超市、苏宁云商、南极电商、跨境通、青岛金王；2. 百货龙头受益行业回暖与业绩提升，推荐天虹商场、鄂武商A；3. 混改预期明确、改善弹性大的的百联股份、银座股份、中百集团；4. 自下而上转型，资产提供安全边际，推荐友阿股份。同时看好家家悦在次新板块超额收益。

当陪伴我们一代又一代的“传统百货”面临关店，当网购规模不在如从前般疯狂增长的时候，零售业是否真的走到了终点？答案当然是“否”！恰恰相反，在科技巨头公司的带动下，零售业正在翻开崭新篇章：亚马逊打造了「Amazon Go」“不排队、不结账”的新型超市；阿里投资的「盒马鲜生」绝非传统连锁超市+APP，而是供应链重构、品类重构、服务重构后诞生的新零售！

2017 年春节黄金周（1 月27 日至2 月2 日）全国零售和餐饮企业实现额约8400 亿元，同比增长11.4%，增速同比上升0.2 个百分点，扣除CPI 因素与去年基本持平。

2017 春节黄金周销售额实现三连增达8400 亿，消费复苏逻辑下关注超市和百货板块经营边际改善个股。