全球宏观面的不明朗以及A 股目前较高的估值，使得2016 年在选股和择时上需要更为慎重，需要聚焦真正具有业绩兑现能力而非只讲故事的标的，并且需要择时，安全边际是重要的考量因素。方向性标的：新材料（国瓷材料、强力新材、康达新材）、转型龙头（金固股份、三联虹普）、模式创新（诺普信、永利股份、西陇科学）。

显示领域新贵OLED 时代即将到来：智能手机、穿戴设备、VR 的快速发展下，OLED 凭借更加轻薄、高对比度、柔性可弯曲、广视角范围等明显优势有望不断拓展新的应用领域，成为未来的主流显示技术之一。随着技术、产能、成本的问题逐步解决，目前OLED 已经开始崛起。我们在一个月前报告中已确认苹果明年产品将采用OLED，同时安卓阵营的厂商也在加速应用OLED 产品，OLED 在中小领域的应用已经呈现高速增长，预计17 年OLED市场将呈现翻倍增长。到18 年三星、LG、夏普三家有望同时放量，以电视为核心的大尺寸OLED 屏幕市场也将全面启动，未来十年OLED 有望占到整个显示屏市场总比例的30%-40%，因此我们坚定看好OLED 行业未来的发展空间！

展望 4 月份，主要下游化工行业有望稳中有进，再加上去产能政策提振，化工行业供需两端将继续小幅升温，产品价格延续回暖态势，行业盈利情况有望改善。但是，在煤油价格低位运行的情况下，2016 年 PVC 行业市场竞争将愈发激烈，乙烯法 PVC 将对电石法 PVC 价格带来较大冲击，传导至上游，对电石行业盈利将造成影响，电石行业生产经营形势面临严峻挑战。

營運現況：2015 年本產業銷售值年增率衰退 9.52%，銷售表現呈現轉差，2016年第一季由於國內製造業生產情況仍不佳，下游產業需求未有好轉，估計本產業銷售值年增率將持續處於衰退情況。

从2015 年扣非后归属净利润同比增速看，化肥和饲料添加剂大幅扭亏为盈；化纤、锂电池材料增速高于100%；氯碱、塑料制品、精细化学品、煤化工在0~50%区间；钛白粉、氟化工亏损；其他子行业均同比下滑。从1Q2016 扣非后归属净利润同比增速看，化纤和饲料添加剂子行业大幅扭亏为盈；其他化学原料、锂电池材料、氯碱增速高于100%；精细化学品、有机硅、塑料制品在0~100%区间；钛白粉、民爆亏损；其他子行业均同比下滑。

食盐专营改革大幕正式拉开：通过对于本次盐改斱案的仔细推敲，我们认为这一改革斱案的公布预示着国内实施20 年的食盐专营体制改革的大幕正式拉开，对食盐行业的深进影响将逐步兑现。

行业整体依旧示弱 部分子行业值得期待：我们认为2015 年在全球石油价栺持续低迷的背景下，化工行业整体依然维持下行态势。行业整体收入规模在油价下行的趋势下持续萎缩，整体盈利觃模随乊降低。但也值得注意的地方是，部分子行业或受益于原材料成本的下降、或受益于行业供需结构的改善已经呈现出持续性的、稳定的复苏态势。

国家能源局 4 月 8 日发布的一项工作指导显示，为了把天然气在我国能源结构中所占的比例提高到 6.3%，我国的目标是在今年把天然气产量增长 13.26%并为原油设置了一个较低产量目标。根据国家能源局的工作指导，我国今年原油产量目标设置在 2 亿吨(400 万桶/天)，而天然气产量设置在 1440 亿立方米。根据国家统计局的统计数据，我国今年的原油产量目标将比去年 2.1474 亿吨原油产量下降 6.86%。

2016 年，供给侧改革将是资本市场重要内容。去产能，化解房地产库存等重大举措都将为化工行业提供持续的投资机会。我们从原料成本推动，需求拉动，供给收缩三个角度，梳理化工行业投资机会，其中：1、原料价格上行推动下游产品价格回升，建议关注PTA（恒逸石化、荣盛石化）和粘胶短纤（三友化工、南京化纤、新乡化纤、澳洋科技）。2、房地产去库存，投资需求增长有望拉动上游建材需求，建议关注，如纯碱、玻璃、PVC 和MDI（金晶科技、三友化工、鸿达兴业、中泰化学、万华化学）。3、淘汰落后产能，关停污染企业，供给端受冲击，龙头优势企业受益，建议关注印染行业（联发股份）、染料行业（闰土股份、浙江龙盛）。另外，建议关注天然橡胶、轮胎板块，天然橡胶收益于三大产国出口量的减少、原油的持续反弹、下游轮胎企业需求的回暖等，天胶价格有望继续上升，推荐中化国际、海南橡胶。另外，下游轮胎企业普遍提高价格，强烈推荐赛轮金宇、青岛双星。中长期，我们持续推荐基本面亮点突出，业绩增长确定的公司。

新材料板块热点不断，关注OLED 材料和锂电材料等龙头企业。钛白粉行业有望迎来第五次涨价潮，建议继续关注佰利联（002601）。

Dairy whiteners are widely used as a substitute for fresh milk in tea; coffee; hot chocolate; and other food products such as soups, sauces, puddings, and cereal dishes. They are available in fluid and dried forms. The production of dairy whiteners has gone up owing to their being convenient, shelf stable, and ready to reconstitute. The main ingredients of dairy whiteners are.

Glass ceramics are microcrystalline solids that are produced by the controlled devitrification of glass. Glasses are molten and fabricated to the required shape; they are finally converted by heat treatment to form a crystalline ceramic. Controlled crystallization lies in efficient internal nucleation, permitting the development of fine and randomly oriented grains without microcracks, voids, or other porosity. The ability to be formed into complex shapes by blowing, pressing, and rolling by employing a highspeed plastic forming processes that are used in glass industry is a significant advantage of glass ceramics over conventional ceramics.

We expect the global baby bath soap market to grow at a CAGR of 5.85% in terms of revenue during 2016-2020. APAC dominated the market with a share of 50.46% in 2015. Based on the product type, the market can be segmented into medicated and nonmedicated baby soap segments. MEA and APAC are among the most attractive retail targets globally and exhibit high growth potential for the market. The regions have the largest population of children in the world, which is the main reason for their high growth potential, not only for baby bath soaps, but for all baby hygiene products. To develop and widen their baby bath soap offerings in the market, manufacturers and retailers now are focusing more on product innovations and marketing strategies.

Green and bio solvents are derived from agricultural sources, including corn, sugar cane, refined glycerin, soybean oil, lactic acid, bio-succinic acid, and other similar products. These solvents emit less volatile organic compounds (VOCs), are environmentally friendly, and less toxic compared to petroleum-based conventional solvents. This is the primary reason for manufacturers to shift toward adopting green and bio solvents.

Pyridines are heterocyclic aromatic compounds, with five carbon atoms and a nitrogen atom. The pyridine ring occurs naturally in biological compounds such as azines and in vitamins such as pyridoxal and niacin. Alpha-, beta-, and gamma-picoline are the methyl pyridine isomers of the compound.

Food stabilizers are added to stabilize and improve the texture, prevent crystallization (sugar and ice), stabilize foams and emulsions, reduce the stickiness of icings on baked products, and to retain moisture and flavor of food products. Polysaccharide gum, arabic gum, and guar gum are the most commonly used stabilizers and thickeners. Gelatin is another commonly used non-carbohydrate stabilizer obtained from several animal-by products.

BB and CC products are developed to protect the skin and hair from harmful UV radiation and to be used as a multifunctional beauty product. Based on functionality, they can be categorized into three segments: BB and CC skin care products, BB and CC color cosmetics, and BB and CC hair care products. Some of the benefits these products offer are