维持板块 16 年“超配”评级。自 11 月以来，我们从防御性视角开始独家力 推自然景区板块的龙头股，整体看来，相对收益显著，显著跑赢板块。目前， 我们从全年角度依然看好龙头景区个股有业绩、有诉求、有事件驱动、估值 低所带来得防御基础上的向上弹性，建议桂林旅游、峨眉山 A、张家界、黄 山旅游等可组合配臵；同时，随着迪士尼开业时间（6 月 16 日）不到 3 个月， 建议投资人积极把握作为上半年最具确定性的投资主题机会，再次重点推荐 迪士尼三剑客锦江股份、中青旅，宋城演艺；此外，在市场情绪有所转好的 情况下，建议积极把握优质成长股的配臵机会。

在跨境电商消费产业链中，不同于普通的电商消费， 由于通关环节的存在和固有流通渠道难以打破，综合物流服务商的议价能力相对更强。 我们预计， 如果假设物流环节成本占比为 25%，那么 2015 年跨境 B2C 物流的市场规模已经超过千亿级别，达到 1196 亿，而且未来 2 年将保持 35%以上年复合增速。

快递行业将进入稳健发展期，初步测算，未来 5 年，行业复合增速在 23%。内部驱动因素：快递产业未来继续放量，人工成本高企，智能装备技术日趋成熟，接近转型爆发点；外部驱动因素：宏观政策指引， 电商、消费者需求提升。行业转型一触即发。受益于快递行业的存量转型升级和增量稳健发展的相关产业规模至少万亿级别。

对于近期市场热炒的周期见底，我们持较为谨慎的观点。经过大幅下跌后，大宗商品本身有反弹需求，利好干散货运输。但考虑到宏观经济并未企稳， 下游需求不足， 直接表现为 2 月信贷大幅低于预期，反弹或难言反转。我们继续推荐攻守兼备的机场板块，博取相对收益； 主题方面静待“两会” 后国企改革落地。

随着互联网技术的发展、商业模式的改变，我们的传 统行业要朝着集成系统化工业的方向发展，它需要把整个国际物流当中每个端口的行业 统一到互联网模式之下，达到自营化、信息化管理，把每个端口的需求统一起来，最终 达到提高效率、合理分配资源的目的，这样一来，它的经济效益、效能可以达到最佳。

伴随着行业政策壁垒的逐渐放开，中国快递行业经历了国有企业为主、国有企业与民营企业并存、加入 WTO 后快递产业对外开放、网购需求促使行业高速增长的几个时期。

摘要：随着世界旅游业进入一个高增长时期，中国旅游产业的发展也进入了一个快速增长时期。我国旅游资源十分丰富，是世界旅游资源大国之一。进入21 世纪以后，我国旅游业得到了长足的发展，旅游业总收入从 2008 年的 1.16万亿元增长到 2014 年的 3.25 万亿元，旅游总人数从 2008 年的 17.12 亿人次增长到 2014 年的 36 亿人次，年复合增长率分别达到 13.74%和 9.74%。以迪斯尼为代表的主题公园行业作为旅游业的细分行业，以其丰富的创造力和新型商业模式取得了高速的发展，成为旅游业中独具特色的一面旗帜。

报告从行业事件分析、政策环境、市场环境、旅游交通、国际环境、旅游集团、旅游目的地、旅行社、酒店以及相关行业数据方面对旅游行业进行了分析评论。

——2016 年国企改革时间表和路线图更加清晰，可实施性更强，国企作为供给侧结构改革重要的运行主体，改革步伐有望超预期。作为降成本、补短板，推进供给侧结构性改革的重点任务，物流行业将着力推动创新发展，整合资源的物流模式具有巨大的成长空间。

中国电商快递在电子商务爆发式增长的年代，摸索出了一套完全不同的轻资产模式，即加盟制。一单快递从收件到派件，总共经过三大部分：收件端加盟商，总部干线，派件端加盟商。三个部分之间没有任何股权关系，每单快递从上一环节到下一环节都需要向其支付运费。实际上是社会化线下互联网的模式来运送快递。 而顺丰为代表的直营快递在高端领域基本没有对手。但其较高的运营成本和资本开支，使其盈利能力和业务收入增速远不如三通一达总部， 估计其净利润率及 ROE 水平均在 7%到 8%左右，收入增速 25 到 30%左右。

The printing market has a wide range of applications in the packaging industry, including segments like food and beverage, personal care, healthcare, and others. The food and beverage segment held the majority of the global printing market for packaging in 2015. However, the healthcare segment will experience major growth in the coming years. The increase in demand for innovative packaging has driven the growth of the printing market. The packaging industry has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade, with increasing importance of labeling and printing text on the packaging both in terms of promotional aspects and regulatory aspects. This increased importance has boosted the demand of the printing market. The demand for digital printing has increased due to its high-quality printing. Flexography printing will also grow due to the demand for convenient and flexible packaging.

Soft drinks are non-alcoholic drinks that include the following segments: CSDs, juices and concentrates, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea and coffee, and functional drinks. Soft drink packaging provides product support, external environment protection, and tamper resistance. It aids in the reliable distribution of soft drinks among the value chain and reduces post-production damage. The different types of materials used in packaging of soft drinks are glass, plastic, metal, and paperboard. The application of these packaging materials is for hot beverages, packaged water, CSD, and sports and energy drinks.

A screw conveyor is a mechanism comprising a rotating helical screw blade that is contained within a tube; its primary use is moving granular and liquid materials and thus, screw conveyors are widely used in bulk handling of materials in various industries. Screw conveyors used in modern industries include horizontal type screw conveyors or slight incline screw conveyors, mainly to move semi-solid materials, including wood chips, food waste, boiler ash, meat, and cereal grains.

Refrigerated transportation is used to supply customers with safe and high-quality perishable goods. These perishable goods can be perishable food products, pharmaceuticals, or others like flowers and chemical products. This type of transportation is carried out via roadways, seaways, and airways. Transportation by airways is used mainly by the pharmaceutical industry.

An energy management system (EMS) consists of hardware, software, and services that provide energy information to users such as infrastructure managers, financial managers, facility managers, and power utilities. It is also a systematic process, which is used for continual improvement of energy performance. Consumers spend an enormous amount of their budgets on energy. This cost can be reduced with the use of improved energy management solutions. Thus, to improve managing and tracking of energy data, EMS is used.

Express delivery is the accelerated delivery of items that are non-palletized and weigh less than 110 pounds, such as parcels, documents, and letters, to different typ customers, such as business customers, retail customers, and government agencies. Express deliveries are usually made within two or three days, depending on customer requirements. These services are offered by CEP (courier express parcel) vendors that provide various value-added services to customers to further enhance the delivery process, such as online tracking of parcels and couriers. The primary business of the express industry is to provide value-added, door-to-door transport and next-day or time-definite shipments.