海通国际预测，25 年 4 月重点跟踪的 8 个行业中 5 个保持正增长，2 个负增长，1 个持平。个位数增长的行业包括乳制品、餐饮、软饮料、调味品和速冻食品；下降的行业包括大众及以下白酒和次高端及以上白酒；啤酒行业持平。与上月相比，6 个行业增速改善，2 个增速变差。尽管整体需求未见明显增长，但是也未出现明显下降。结合 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，我们对部分数据进行了修正，各子行业 2024 年最大偏差不到 3%。

Coffee creamer is a cream substitute for milk or milk powder, which is used in coffee or tea extracts, chocolate beverages, and other food preparations. Coffee creamers are vastly available, as per consumers tastes and lactose tolerance abilities, in dairy and non-dairy versions. Dairy coffee creamers contain lactose, and non-dairy coffee creamers are lactose-free. In addition, they are low in calories, come in a variety of tastes, are plant-based, nutritious, and contain natural ingredients such as almond and soy.

Green tea is a type of tea made from the leaves of the Camellia sinensis plant that have undergone minimal oxidation during processing, resulting in a delicate flavor profile, light green color, and high levels of antioxidants and other bioactive compounds.

The Irish whiskey is the fastest-growing type of whiskey globally. Irish whiskey is considered one of the best spirits in the world. It is made from unmalted barley and distilled for three years after that. When distilled, it goes through a fermentation process where other enzymes help to digest and metabolize the alcohol. It is then triple-distilled for better taste and smoothness. Irish whiskey is known to mix well with other drinks and is smoother than other whiskeys.

强化内功，蓄力改善。2025年行业呈现“需求筑底、渠道去库、批价企稳”特征。1）需求端，结构分化延续，大众价位较好、部分单品升级、宴席环比回暖；伴随龙头酒企强化渠道管控，主流单品批价企稳。2）供给端，酒企增速规划较以往偏保守、追求高质量发展，聚焦组织架构、品牌底蕴、产品结构、渠道体系、营销打法等内功持续发力。同时龙头酒企在分红回报上积极树立标杆，一方面白酒行业发展范式有望逐步走向稳增长、强分红，另一方面在头部酒企示范效应的带动下未来预计将有更多现金流充裕的酒企强化股东回报。

白酒行业：行业仍处于底部调整阶段，白酒龙头企业经营稳健－2024年年报＆2025年一季报综述

东南亚零食市场初探。东南亚人口基数大、成长动力足，出海空间可期。以人均 GDP 为参考值，泰国接近我国 2013 年水平，印尼、越南和菲律宾接近我国 2010 年水平，缅甸、柬埔寨和老挝等处于更早期阶段。聚焦到零食市场，2024 年东南亚九国零食市场规模为 208 亿美元，同口径下为中国市场规模的 32%，不同国家间成长性差异较大。分品类看，咸味零食（风味零食）占比较高，糖果类增速放缓。

必选消费行业：黄酒行业，格局优化，剑指高端－深度研究

外部不确定性增加+国内政策定调积极，行业重视度提升。近期外部 不确定性增加，提振内需或将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一环。叠 加国内消费定调积极，食品饮料业绩受海外市场影响较小，行业重视 度提升。