2018 年地产板块整体先扬后抑，年初大幅拉升，随后又快速回落，估值不断下 移，已经降到 12 倍左右的历史低位水平，龙头地产股处于严重被低估状态。 2018 年房地产市场进入到一个“混沌”状态，市场对于政策是松是紧，销量何 时见底，融资收紧影响几何，龙头集中度空间还有多少产生了不少的分歧。我 们的下半年房地产投资策略就从这几个分歧中纠偏，重新结构新的投资框架。

6 月6 日从内蒙古自治区人民政府网站获悉，近期，内蒙古自治区住建厅、财政厅、发改委等7 部门联合下发《关于结合城市“双修”、完善公共服务供给做好非住宅商品房去库存的意见》，以化解非住宅商品房库存，进一步完善城市公共服务供给，促进全区房地产市场平稳健康发展，推动供给侧结构性改革深入开展，鼓励以置换、购买等方式消化非住宅商品房。

Following a two-year period of growth driven by the general economic expansion and the availability of EU funding, the construction market in Romania experienced a slight shrinkage in 2016, due to a combination of lower construction work volumes in some subsectors, lower investments and political tensions. The construction sector’s output in 2016 (defined in terms of total construction works performed under contract) was RON 67.6bn, down 11.4% y/y in nominal terms. The sector’s gross valueadded (GVA) formed 7.7% of the real GDP. The sector also employed 365,298 people. Construction was driven mainly by rapid developments in the real estate market that stimulated the growth of residential buildings’ construction. Rising income levels and an increase in employment are driving the demand for residential property, particularly among middle-income Romanians. The boom in services in Romania – particularly in the information and communications technology (ICT), business process outsourcing (BPO) and retail sectors – is boosting the demand for office space

投资开工乐观，预计增长 7%。地产投资主要包括土地购置费用和施工建 安支出，2018 年前 5 月受土地购置费支撑地产投资同比增长 10.2%。考 虑土地成交价款增速已较 2017 年已回落 33 个百分点，预计后续土地购置 费增速也将回落，带动全年地产投资增速回落至 7%。测算当前全国住宅 库存仅 0.64 年，下半年住宅新开工有望维持高位；同时一二线开工补货、 三四线加快开工及推盘抢收需求亦将为全国开工提供支撑，预计全年新开 工同比增长 7%。