行业研究报告题录
交通运输、仓储和邮政业(2017年第20期)
(报告加工时间:2017-06-19 -- 2017-06-25)

境内分析报告

  • 物流竞争情报-第654期
    随着国内几大快递物流上市,上市后的快递大佬们纷纷将眼光瞄准了海外市场,短期跨境物流上竞争有限,3-5 年后可能行业将会带来巨大改变。圆通最近 10 亿收购香港上司公司先达国际物流控股,以此来撬动国际市场的野心昭然可见。在圆通收购先达国际物流以前,国内几大快递公司为了布局跨境快递业务,也有一些收购案例。申通、中通均是先后通过收购美国优晟速递、美国天马迅达等初步布局海外,百世也入股 360 海淘。
  • 物流竞争情报-第655期
    马云在多个场合说过,未来最大的能源不是石油而是大数据。刚刚过去的顺丰与菜鸟之间的摩擦,正是这样一场商战预演。互联网发展到今天,掌握大数据已经成为提升企业竞争优势的必要条件。但仅仅掌握了数据还不够,拥有应用数据的能力才是企业真正的壁垒。

境外分析报告

  • 全球柔性防护包装市场报告(2016-2020年)
    Demographic trends such as population growth and greater urbanization and economic factors such as steady growth in manufacturing activity and rising consumer disposable incomes mainly in APAC will influence the global flexible protective packaging market during the forecast period. The global flexible protective packaging market is expected to witness moderate growth and grow at a CAGR of 6.25% during the forecast period. The market was dominated by Europe in 2015, followed by the Americas and APAC. The other flexible protective packaging segment represented the largest segment in the market by product type in 2015, followed by the air pillow protective packaging segment.
  • 全球地下铁路安全市场报告(2017-2021年)
    Public transportation is a subset of the national transportation infrastructure and a major component of the economy. Passenger safety, secure critical infrastructure, and customer service are of utmost importance to transit agencies. The need to secure air, sea, and surface transportation is important because of increasing intrusions and the trafficking of arms and illegal goods between different locations and countries. The safety and security of public transport is very important, as many people commute by bus or train. Post 2000, mass transit hubs and transportation centers witnessed a rise in criminal and violent activities. In addition, violent acts around the world have shown that mass transit systems are the easy targets for criminal attacks. It is seen that onethird of criminal activities worldwide target transportation and transit systems. For instance, in 2005, three bomb blasts took place on subway trains and buses during the morning rush hour in London, which killed more than 30 people.
  • 欧洲快递市场报告(2017-2021年)
    This report covers the present scenario and growth prospects of the express delivery market in Europe for the period 2017-2021. The report considers the revenue generated by the express delivery services in Europe. In addition, the report discusses the major drivers that influence the growth of the market. It also outlines the challenges faced by vendors and the market at large, as well as the key emerging trends.The report also presents the vendor landscape and a corresponding detailed profiling of the key market participants across the value chain of the express delivery market in Europe. The vendors are identified based on various qualitative and quantitative parameters and grouped into key players and other prominent players. The market value/volume and vendor information have been captured based on the indicators prevailing at the time of conducting the research.
  • 日本第三方物流市场报告(2017-2021年)
    This report covers the present scenario and growth prospects of 3PL market in Japan for the period 2017-2021. The report has taken into consideration the 3PL services provided by the vendors in Japan. In addition, the report discusses the major drivers that influence the growth of the 3PL market in Japan. It also outlines the challenges faced by vendors and the market at large as well as the key emerging trends.
  • 全球空运市场报告(2017-2021年)
    This report covers the present scenario and the growth prospects of the global airfreight forwarding market for the period 2016-2021. To calculate the market size, the report considers the volume of air cargo transported by vendors in the market. The scope of the airfreight forwarding market covered in this report includes all services under airfreight forwarding such as packaging and labeling services, documentation and purchase order (PO) management, charter services, transportation and warehousing, and value-added services (VAS).
  • 商业航空手册
    Growing Demand for Travel: Global demand for air travel is poised to grow in the next year,though airline capacity growth could outstrip demand. Supply and demand dynamics, along with higher oil prices and labor costs, are likely to affect global airline profits. Nevertheless,global industry proflts are expected to remain above historical averages. Continued growth in travel demand remains a positive factor for aircraft original equipment manufaturers (OEM) and lessors.Airline Prospects Vary by Region: Fitch Ratings’ airline sector outlooks for North America,Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), and Latin America are stable for 2017, but industry dynamics vary by region. North America is again poised to be the most profitable, but operating margins are likely to decline from peak levels seen in 2016. EMEA is seeing stable traffic growth, but faces uncertainty from the U.K.’s Brexit referendum and heavy competition.Fundamentals in Latin America are improving, but ratings in the region remain under pressure.Growth Continues in China: Fitch expects China’s revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK) growth to be in the high single digits to low teens over the next 5–10 years due to strong travel demand underpinned by falling air fare due to low oil prices and increasing competition,ongoing urbanization, rising household incomes, improving infrastructure and consumer lifestyle changes in favor of leisure travelling, especially international. RPK growth of international routes will likely continue to outpace domestic routes as it did in 2015 and 2016.

投资分析报告

  • 交通运输行业:航空旺季验证窗口已至,大秦线运量维持高位-“交点之周报篇-
    1)2017 年 5 月,大秦线完成货物运输量 3765 万吨,同比增加 46.96%。日均运量 121 万吨。2017 年 1-5 月,大秦线累计完成货物运输量 17429 万吨,同比增长 30.31%。 2)5 月开始伴随水电增加,动力煤消费将处于传统淡季。5 月份,全国 6 大发电集团 日均耗煤量 60.78 万吨,仍高于 15/16 年同期的 60.67/54.76 万吨。6 月第一周,6 大 发电集团日均耗煤量回升至 64.82 万吨,高于 15/16 年同比的 58.26/59.47。 3)不考虑黄骅港产能扩张的基础上,大秦线 3.6-3.8 亿吨中期运量底逐步明晰。我们上 调大秦线 17/18/19 年运量至 4.0/3.8/3.8 亿吨,预测公司 17/18/19 年 EPS 为 0.76/0.72/0.72 元,对应当前股价 PE 为 10.9 X/11.5 X/11.4 X。维持当前 50%的分红比 率,公司 17/18 年股息率 4.5%/4.3%,考虑铁路改革和提高分红比率的预期,我们维持 “强烈推荐-A”评级。 2
  • 交通运输行业:《周期复苏、消费变革》
     航空股自2015年中期高点以来呈现单边下跌,汇兑预期变化的同时是供求关系的恶 化。 • 进入2016年,行业供需差不断拉大,其中国际航线客座率跌幅扩大至7个百分点以上。 同时,行业裸票价格也呈现近两位数水平的同比下滑。可以说,运营端缺乏预期差是 导致股价缺乏向上弹性的根本原因。 • 进入2017年,行业供需层面剪刀差正在逆转。 • 供给:17-18年供给增速将呈现下降态势。
  • 社会服务行业:宋城演艺发力轻资产输出,莱茵体育加码体育小镇-周报
    上周中信餐饮旅游指数下跌 0.86%,分别跑赢上证综指、沪深 300 指数 0.25个百分点和 0.74 个百分点。中证体育指数上涨 1.31%,分别跑赢上证综指、沪深 300 指数 2.43 个百分点和 2.92 个百分点。旅游类标的涨幅前三是西安饮食(6.98%)、长白山(6.75%)以及九华旅游(6.02%);体育类标的涨幅前三是三夫户外(10.11%)、平潭发展(9.09%)以及双象股份(6.61%)。
  • 交通运输行业:航空机场行情还能走多远
    航空票价强势依旧,暑运旺季延续前期行情:受益于前期高客座率,票价 水平持续走强,伴随高考的结束和暑运的到来,暑期旺季订票状况良好, 学生流及家庭出游需求将迎来新一轮高峰,今年票价改善幅度或超预期。 供给方面,虽然各大航空公司飞机静态运力引进速度不减,但一线机场时 刻资源紧张,新航线开辟难度较高,另外由于国际航权争夺告一段落,油 价上涨也抑制航司增加长航线供给,2017 年和 2018 年,供给增速或将回 落至民航十三五规划的 10%,甚至更低,供需结构较去年改善明显。市场 普遍预期油价难以冲高,自 5 月 23 日开始,油价下跌幅度已超过 10%,油 价震荡中枢或从 55 美元/桶下移,人民币对美元汇率企稳回升,航空市场 利空渐尽,利多频出,需求旺盛带动高票价及高客座率,航司业绩将持续 上涨。对标美国航空业,盈利改善直接推动航司估值提升,目前美国寡头 垄断航司 PB 估值均在 2.9 倍以上

综合分析报告

  • 交通运输网络规划的地理空间视角
    作为交通运输发展最重要的前期决策工作之一,交通规划需要统筹考虑自然、经济和社会发展等多因素约束。本文以地理空间为分析视角,在回顾我国自然地理特征和区域发展差异的前提下,对国家综合交通网规划、中长期铁路网规划和高速公路网规划的空间结构和基本思想做出了反思。构建适应我国地理特征和区域发展需要的综合交通运输体系,必将对我国国土空间开发和经济社会可持续发展产生深远影响。
  • 班轮公司在非洲市场的发展前景
    当前,中国的重大战略“一带一路”建设,将非洲的三大网络建设与之对接。中国对非洲国家的贸易和投资掀起了一股热潮,这不仅能促进非洲的经济发展,更为其融入全球经济带来了可贵的机遇。本文主要就非洲航运市场情况、目前非洲运力布局和航线设计等角度,利用线性回归分析法对未来非洲进出口货量进行预测,并对班轮公司在非洲发展提出几点建议。
  • 我国多式联运现状与发展趋势
    多式联运有可能上升到国家战略层面,其中一定有深层的原因。今年发改委做了三个跟多式联运有关的重点课题,提出很多建议,研究了一些结论。今天我谈多式联运,会把一些研究成果与大家共享。
  • 我国铁路煤炭运输发展对策分析
    当前煤炭行业发展形势严峻,铁路煤炭运输也受到影响,为稳定煤炭货源,根据我国煤炭市场经济运行特征,分别从铁路煤炭运输情况和省际煤炭调运2个方面分析我国煤炭运输格局,并且从未来煤炭需求和特高压跨区输电网的发展2个方面考虑其对未来铁路煤炭运输的影响,最后从优化铁路煤炭运输布局、深化铁路煤炭运价改革、发展铁路煤炭物流服务能力3方面提出我国铁路煤炭运输发展建议。
  • 电力企业物流管理一体化建设的探究
    电力企业物流管理一体化建设可以有效提升物流管理的准确性、高效性,保证物资顺利稳定配给。文中重点分析了电力企业物流一体化发展的基本情况,探讨了物流一体化管理的模式,从多个方面提出了改进电力物流一体化管理的具体措施。
  • 我国对外陆路通道发展现状及问题
    本文对我国对外陆路通道的设施现状、运营情况和面临问题进行了分析。截至2013年底,我国沿边9省区与周边14个接壤国家共有一类铁路口岸12个、公路口岸60个、内河口岸21个、航空口岸21个,形成跨境铁路通道11条、主要跨境公路通道32条,初步建立了与周边国家的通道体系。通道建设主要面临沿线国家之间地缘政治复杂;骨干通道不贯通,存在断头路;通道多处通而不畅状态,互联互通作用难以发挥;通道技术标准差异大,运输效率不高;陆路运输通道往返运量差异大;建设维护资金需求量大,运营盈利预期低等问题。
  • 投资主体多元化背景下的铁路建设项目财务评价
    随着我国铁路鼓励社会资本参与铁路建设,铁路建设项目的市场化程度越来越高,项目财务评价备受关注。在阐述铁路建设项目财务评价方法与参数的基础上,分析目前铁路建设项目财务评价方法在收入计算、支出计算、财务评价分析方面存在的主要问题,提出投资主体多元化背景下的铁路建设项目财务评价建议。
  • 北京铁路局利港货场向现代物流转型的对策
    铁路货运改革的发展方向是转型成为现代物流企业。从发展铁路货运、满足客户需求、提高市场竞争力等方面阐述北京铁路局利港货场向现代物流转型的必要性,在此基础上分析利港货场发展现代物流的优势和劣势,进而提出向现代物流转型的对策,即加强海铁联运资源整合,发挥利港货场作为物流节点的功能,重视人才培养。

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