The modern generation of consumers is inclined to pursue a healthy lifestyle with a rising focus on how healthier produce is manufactured, how raw materials are sourced, and what is the impact of the production and consumption of these foods and beverages on environmental sustainability, workplace conditions, and worker sustenance. Apart from this, there is a visible shift among consumers to non- conventional foods that are becoming alternatives to traditional meat and dairy. Although conventional food and beverages, including meat and dairy products, are favored in terms of price and flavor, the changing consumption habits and lifestyle choices are driving the growth of products with ethical labels in recent years.

Farmers are considered to be the backbone of the agricultural economy. Both the Indian and Chinese governments have been helping their farmers by providing subsidies toward farm machinery and equipment, which has helped farmers easily avail tractors and other farm machinery. Rising consumption of machinery and tractors drives the market for agricultural lubricants in these regions and will follow suit through 2024. The Indian government, in order to promote agricultural mechanization, launched the “Tractor Subsidy,” under which the government provides 25% subsidy for buying a tractor, power tiller, self-propelled reaper, paddy transplantation, and other similar self-propelled machines, specialized power-driven equipment, such as zero-till- seed drill, raised bed planter, sugarcane cutter planter, potato planter, potato digger, groundnut digger, straw reaper, strip-till drill, tractor-drawn reaper, cleaner-cum- grader, dryer, stubble shaver, mobile fruit harvester, and power weeder, etc. The ministry of agriculture, Government of India, has approved the list of tractor models up to 35 HP eligible for this subsidy program, and this scheme is open to all categories of farmers.

3 月农林牧渔板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.5 个百分点。3 月份 农林牧渔板块上涨 2.64 个百分点，沪深 300 下跌 5.84 个百分点，板 块跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.48 个百分点。子板块中，种植业、饲料、农产 品加工、渔业、农业综合、林业、动物保健和畜禽养殖分别+12.11%、 +11.38%、+7.25%、+4.31%、+3.39%、+0.04%、-2.84%和-4.32%。

影响养殖板块盈利的因素包括行业周期（猪价）、出栏量（成长）、头均盈利能力（成本）。当前阶段，生猪养殖板块进入利润释放阶段，在盈利周 期拉长的背景下，企业的利润高增长成为当前养殖股投资的核心，而在当前非瘟疫情泛滥的背景下，非瘟疫情防控能力构成企业高成长的关键。

对比全球我国种业起步较晚，目前向深化市场化阶段发展。2018 年我国种 业市场规划达到 1321 亿元，其中玉米（23%）和水稻种子（其中杂交稻 11%，常规稻 4%）占比最大，目前我国杂交玉米种子出现供小于求得情 况，而杂交水稻种子近几年出现供过于求的情况。从商品化率及每亩种子费 用来看我国种业市场增长潜力充足，目前我国种子商品化率比之国际水平仍 有提升空间，其次我国主要农作物种子价格呈现持续增长的趋势，亩均用种 量与种子单价构成每亩种子费用也呈增长趋势。

生鲜农产品供应链以蔬菜、水果、肉禽、水产蛋奶等生鲜食品为研究主体，针对市场渠道、物流（流通）、零售等供应链环节的特征和现状进行研究分析。

1、“黑天鹅”新冠疫情短期冲击需求，“灰犀牛”非瘟疫情长期抑 制供给。双疫情下供需两弱且均在逐步修复，但需求端修复力度和速度快 于供给端，预计“两会”后需求释放+调控减弱，猪价有望现阶段高点。2、 当前产能效率下降明显，不应乐观估计 3Q20 出栏量的恢复，全年猪价或 在 25-35 元/公斤高位震荡。3、非瘟常态化下，“自育肥”+二元轮回杂交 的组合策略攻守兼备，快速补充产能、同时降低疫病风险，充分享受集中 度提升红利。4、长期看屠宰在产业链定位上移，下游一体化整合在即。

后非瘟时代，养殖规模化提速+对生物安全重视是两条主线，动物疫苗行业真正迎来to B 时代，研发资源整合能力+工艺水平+渠道力成为真正的竞争核心，得大单品得天下依然是中期逻辑；长期来看，to B + to C（宠物疫苗）时代共存，行业属性由工业消耗品向消费品过渡和切换，资金实力&管理水平边际贡献或将大幅提升，企业成长路径难以发生实力跃迁，动保行业有望延续强者恒强的局面，重点推荐生物股份、中牧股份、普莱柯、瑞普生物。

通过分析，我们发现美国、加拿大、日本、英国、欧盟国家（包括丹麦、西班牙 和德国）的生猪产业均经历过或经历着 20-30 年的快速规模化过程。这些国家 和地区规模化的动因包括人均猪肉消费饱和、禽肉替代的威胁、行业总量饱和甚 至萎缩、进口猪肉的竞争、老龄化和非农收入导致散养户退出等因素。虽然动因 不完全一致，但是目的基本都是试图通过产业整合和技术升级实现降本增效。