2024 年 12 月 19 日，美联储“鹰派降息”下，人民币汇率压力再度增加，离岸美元兑人民币汇率盘中最高触及 7.3248，引发市场广泛关注。在特朗普再次当选、贸易保护政策可能助推美元进入新一轮强势周期的背景下，人民币汇率将如何演绎成为市场关注的焦点。本报告将回顾 2023 年强美元周期中人民币汇率的表现，并基于掉期市场与资金流动的分析，对未来人民币汇率走势进行展望。  

消费金融公司肩负“促进我国经济由投资主导型向消费主导型转变”重要使命。自 2015 年全面放开后，增长率在 2017 年达到顶峰，经过近 3 年的整改后，2023 年消费金融公司总资产规模突破万亿元，行业步入高质量规范发展时代。截止今年三季度末，全国居民人均可支配收入较去年同期增长 5.2%，人均消费支出较去年同期增长 5.6%；金融层面，截止今年 6 月末，本外币住户消费性贷款（不含个人住房贷款）余额为 20 万亿元，较去年同期增长 6.7%，消费贷款在居民消费的作用愈发重要，部分居民借助消费贷款来进一步拓展消费能力，提前实现消费计划。 

“资产荒”逻辑强化、正股市场积极因素逐步积聚，转债资产再次表现出自身的周期性。展望 2025 年，有两个关键性问题需要思考：（1）正股市场预期仍有分歧，那么当前位置是已有“泡沫”还是刚进入估值抬升阶段、空间判断？新变量如何影响明年择时？（2）岁末年初，准备抢筹的资金以及阶段性止盈的资金该如何布局？

During FY2022 the Top 100 luxury goods companies generated composite sales of US$347 billion, up from the US$305 billion registered in FY2021. This sharp increase in luxury goods sales signals the good state of the luxury industry after the COVID-19 pandemic years.

The global luxury fashion market is gaining momentum with the rise in the number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), the popularity of millennials and Gen Z, increasing brand loyalty among customers, and the association of luxury brands with greater social acceptance. The rapidly changing technological landscape and the growing adoption of technologies such as AR by the fashion industry, supported by the growing penetration of digital channels across developing markets, provide significant growth opportunities for vendors.

Vendor management software is a software application that helps organizations manage their supplier relationships and expedite the procurement process. It makes contract management, order processing, performance tracking, and vendor selection easier. Organizations may improve sourcing and procurement efficiency, reduce costs, assure compliance, and optimize their supply chains with the use of vendor management software. Organizations that are interested in efficiently handling their vendor ecosystem, increasing efficiency, reducing risks, and getting the most out of their supplier relationships must have this software.