The Philippines is an agrarian country, with half of its population living in the rural areas and being engaged in farming. Agriculture and forestry contributed some 8.8% to the national GDP on its own,and some 10.3% if fisheries are included, official data showed. Agriculture in the Philippines has been struggling with fragmentation and low levels of technological adoption and specialisation, ashighlighted by its flagging GVA over the 2011-2015 period. Yet the sector enjoys good fundamentals in the face of farming traditions, a large farming population and good global positions in several subsectors such as coconut and rice growing, sugar manufacturing and fisheries. Additional favourable factors include a growing population, an expanding food processing industry and a government focus on reforms.

Last week was characterized by a relatively stable price situation in Ukrainian wheat market. Export prices for milling wheat with 12.5% protein (2nd grade) remained within USD 185-186/MT FOB, and those for wheat with 11.5% protein (3rd grade) – at USD 182-184/MT FOB for February-March delivery.The prices were supported by wheat strengthening in the world market, as well as by persistent demand from importers.But it should be noted, there is no many Ukrainian wheat left for export. During the first half of the current season Ukraine exported more than 5 MMT of wheat with protein content higher than 11%.Moreover, market operators informed that in January nearly 700 KMT of milling wheat were ready for export to India, and about 400 KMT – to Egypt and the European Union. The wheat export program isalmost completed in Ukraine, and the importers’ demand is expected to switch to Russian wheat,where a half of export capacity is still available.

The Australian vegetable-growing industry is an important part of Australian agriculture, contributing around 6 per cent ($3.4 billion) to the gross value of agricultural production in 2014–15 (ABS 2016).Between 2006–07 and 2014–15, the estimated average farm cash income of Australian vegetable growers remained relatively steady, although both average total cash receipts and average total cash costs increased. This reflects an increase in the average size of vegetable-growing farms.In 2015–16 (the most recent survey year) average farm cash income of Australian vegetable-growing farms is estimated to have increased to around $249 000 per farm. The financial performance of vegetable farmers improved in all states except South Australia and Western Australia.

“一号文件”正式发布，农业供给侧改革成为重中之重。自 2015 年底中央首次提出农业供给侧改革以来，农业供给侧改革相关政策密集出台。2016 年底中央经济工作会议把农业供给侧改革被提升到新高度。2017 年中央“一号文件”于 2 月 5 日公开发布，重点聚焦在农业供给侧改革方面。

6 年全年生猪价格维持高位（18 元/公斤上下波动），而能繁母猪存栏持续下降，主要原因：①环保因素淘汰母猪，②自然淘汰母猪，③信心、资金等因素：经过上一轮漫长的深度亏损，本轮小养殖户补栏母猪相对较为谨慎，养殖环节专业化更为明显，小养殖户更倾向于补栏仔猪，育肥后出售。④上一轮部分原种猪作为肥猪出售，导致原种猪供应不足。 

农业供给侧改革：农业供给侧改革要点仍然是在‚结构‛，增减相结合。提升的点有‚增加绿色优质农产品，狠抓质量‛和‚培育农业新型经营主体和服务主体‛。而管控的方面是政策性粮食库存消化和农村环境治理。我们认为农业供给侧改革的中间结果是推进土地流转的进行，终极结果是提高粮食综合生产能力和农民增收。

再融资新政下，有业绩、有估值的标的配置价值边际提升，推荐配置牧原股份、禾丰牧业、唐人神等。牧原股份：出栏量有望超预期，猪价虽然预计同比将有所下滑但较高盈利持续时间有望超预期，以量补价，时间取代空间是牧原股份的核心看点，建议适当配置；禾丰牧业：2017 年盈利有望超预期，成本、销量、补贴基于区位优势下有望获得估值溢价，行业补栏确定性提升有望在Q2/Q3 得以显现，成为板块最主要预期差和催化剂，建议重点配置；唐人神：饲料方面销量、单吨盈利均有弹性，是基于饲料板块性逻辑下最佳弹性标的，同时，出栏量快速增长有望尽享仍然较为可观的生猪盈利情况，建议重点配置。

（1）本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.23%。农业板块下跌1.38%，在 28 个子行业中排名第 27。（2）本周猪价下跌，养猪板块除因非公开发行而走强的正邦科技，其余标的走势偏软；鸡价、苗价继续低迷，养鸡板块整体大跌；一月母猪存栏下滑，饲料板块受影响回调；在一号文件风口已过而短期缺乏催化的情况下，对政策高度敏感的种子板块和农垦板块均出现调整；原奶板块的西部牧业受控股股东减持的影响，股价受到一定压制。

后期生猪存栏趋势有望缓步微增：受环保影响较大的南方省份生猪存栏量持续下降，但经历两年产能去化后，存栏降幅边际递减。同时，规模化企业和农户在东、华北地区大幅扩张，农业部畜牧业司司长马有祥指出，虽然 2016 年环保禁养调减生猪 3600 万头，但是大企业在东北以及内蒙古建厂的产能如果完全释放，将新增出栏 1 亿多头，弥补禁养拆迁、散户退出带来的市场空缺。预计 17 年起，生猪存栏将呈现企稳-震荡-回升的走势。

理顺农产品定价机制是实现农业供给侧改革的重要一环，农产品价格机制联系市场化资源配置与农民利益，从率先开展改革的品种来看，采取目标价直补政策取代原有的临储政策或是未来改革趋势，新的定价机制下农产品价格将更真实反映供求关系，更有效引导农业资源配置。 

周五全国生猪价格 16.90 元/公斤，较上周下跌 1.57%，同比涨 0.06%；猪肉价格 26.24 元/公斤，较上周上涨 0.61%，同比上涨 0.08%；猪粮比 10.37，较上周上涨 3.29%，同比跌 9.27%；自繁自养头均盈利 683.15元/头；全国仔猪价格 48.10 元/公斤，较上周下跌 1.68%，同比涨36.45%；二元母猪价格 1945.94 元/头，较上周下跌 7.53%，同比涨18.53%。

进入农历新的一年，在国内脱虚向实，国际面临特朗普执政的不确定环境下，避开泡沫或许成为选股的首要考量因素，对于农业2 月选股思路而言，安全边际是关键。

自去年 11 月末起，整个行业的吨毛利开始快速攀升，带动纸企2016 年下半年吨净利大幅提升，大部分企业均发布盈利预喜。11月末以来箱板纸的价格增长 26%，瓦楞纸价格增长 39%，白纸板价格增长 16%；此外，煤炭价格从 11 月中旬攀至高位后开始下降，也有助于利润率的提升。股价对这个月盈利惊喜也给出了积极反应。但我们建议投资者保持谨慎并转换至淡季模式，因为 2017年上半年利润率可能下滑而且触发产能再次扩张的风险已经有所显露。造纸行业的周期性可能不容易改变，即使资本市场交易也是如此，正如估值倍数在旺季和淡季会在基于价格和利润率前景的基准市净率周围徘徊。因此，可能出现的产能过剩或将威胁到造纸行业的重估机会。