In 2017, Chile was the world’s leading copper mine producer with a 27.2% share in global output, the second-biggest molybdenum mine producer with 20.4%, and the sixth-largest producer of silver, with 5.3%. The country also ranked first in the production of iodine with a 64.5% global share, second in lithium compounds with 32.8%, and eighth in potassium compounds with 2.8%. Mining is the thirdlargest economic sector in Chile, accounting for 10.1% of the country’s GDP, 2.6% of formal employment and 55.4% of national exports. Since late 2016, an upward trend in the prices of iron, molybdenum, coal, copper and lithium, has propelled a recovery of domestic mining production and exports, and led to the resumption of several investment projects. Mining exports rose by a robust 24.7% y/y in 2017, while the sector’s trade surplus widened to USD 36.9bn.

8 月由于经济预期仍较悲观，上证综指下跌5.3%，而煤炭板块方面由于前期跌幅较大以及环保限产钢焦产业链景气上行，本月跑赢上证综指3%，跑赢沪深300 2.9%。

上半年行业整体供需好于预期，各煤种价格延续高位运行，其中动力煤和焦煤均价相比17 年全年均价分别上涨2%和10%。全行业盈利也维持稳健增长，上半年行业规模以上企业实现利润总额1564 亿元，同比增长18.4%。

上半年供给端呈现负增长，但需求向好：据统计局数据，2018 年1-7月，供给端增速为-0.05%，供给负增长的原因有1）2017 年全力保证供应满负荷生产导致2018 年出现采掘衔接问题；2）安全检查等也成为了影响产量的边际变量。

目前煤炭股票完全防守到位，估值处于历史大底；国内817 煤安监办20 号文迈出了治超第一步，汇率贬值和国内煤价前期大跌后进口量正在下降，基本面逐渐好转，建议继续抄底煤炭股。推荐两类股票：业绩好估值低的大白马排序：陕西煤业、兖州煤业、中国神华；有注入预期的股票排序，潞安环能、山煤国际、阳泉煤业、雷鸣科化、山西焦化、西山煤电。