受肺炎疫情下，养殖场原料供应、补栏都受到了不同程度的影响，但是开盘第一周，生猪养殖板块却走势强劲。我们认为疫情对短期供需造成一定的影响，但是板块整体的投资逻辑没有改变，本文重点论述两个问题：（1）当前行业补栏情况如何，怎么看后续产能变化（2）2020 年养猪股投资核心逻辑。

国内外同时减产，奠定价格抬升基础。根据中糖协最新预测，2019/20榨季全国食糖产量预计1062 万吨左右，考虑到进口约300 万吨左右，走私打击力度趋严，我们预计走私量在100 万吨以下，因此总供给在1450 万吨左右。而食糖消费相对稳定在1500 万吨左右，新榨季国内供给较为紧张。同时印度、泰国等主产国进入减产周期，巴西维持低位，国际糖业格局改善，将助力国内价格上涨。

新冠肺炎疫情影响散户补栏、饲料调运，产能恢复节奏被打乱。由于防控措施产生的禁运，部分散养户出现饲料短缺、仔猪补栏困难等情况。根据青松农牧的调研数据，当前散养户中补栏受到影响的占比78%；饲料储备上，只能够维持1 周之内生产经营的养殖户占比约56%；生猪销售方面，未受影响的养殖户占比仅约11%。1月30 日，农业农村部召开会议强调加强“菜篮子”产品生产保供，推动解决畜禽水产养殖饲料补充、“菜篮子”产品外运方面存在的问题；2 月4 日，农业农村部发布关于维护畜牧业正常产销秩序、保障肉蛋奶市场供应的紧急通知。若后续政策逐步落地，饲料短缺、仔猪补栏等困难才能逐步得到缓解。

磷肥属于少数产能持续收缩的化工行业之一，而需求相对稳定，磷肥行业经过几年调整有望重新进入新的上行周期。

Genetically-modified (GM) and hybrid seeds denote a significant step forward in the production of agricultural crops. The adoption of new seed technologies, such as genetically modified seeds and hybrid seeds, has an acute impact on seed coating ingredients market. According to International service for the acquisition of agri-biotech applications, the United States witnessed the highest area cultivated under GM crops and hybrids globally. Over the years, the acreage of genetically modified crops in the United States recorded a positive growth of 5.8% from 70.9 million hectare in 2015 to 75 million hectares in 2017. According to International Service for The Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications, the total acreage of genetically modified crops in Canada was valued at 13.1 million hectare, which was 11 million hectare in 2015. The growers are inclined to use GM and hybrid seeds for various reasons, as they have lower production costs, fewer pest problems, need lesser pesticides, and provide better yields. The higher the consumption of GM seeds, the more the scope for seed coating manufacturers, as most of the GM and hybrid seeds need to be coated for better performance.

The number of suppliers operating in the UAE fruits and vegetables market is quite high, leading to ready availability of products from a few well-established suppliers in the open market. The cost associated with switching suppliers is low as most of the products fall in the same price range. The rise in the number of supermarkets and hypermarkets, along with the emergence of small grocery stores and mini-markets, indicates that the supplier concentration is moderate to high. The forward integration capabilities of suppliers are moderate, as they are still in the process of establishing their own distribution channels.

The global orange market is growing at robust growth rate, owing to the increasing demand for fresh oranges. High production capabilities and magnificent weather conditions contributes to the production of oranges. The production of oranges are majorly affected by several factors, such as environmental factors, bio stress, and government policies of the country. Some of the major pests and disease affecting orange are citrus greening disease, citrus canker, citrus tristeza virus, etc. The unfavorable climatic conditions, such as lower rainfall and high temperatures have a negative influence on the growth of oranges. Spain is one of the major producers of citrus fruits, especially oranges. However, a rebound in the citrus production in the European countries may result in a reduction of imports from Spain. In addition, export destinations for European countries are Middle East, China, and Canada. Naveline, Valencia, moro, sanguinello, etc. are some of the major varieties of orange produced across the world. The other important varieties of orange found are lane late from Australia, Navelate from Spain, and Newhall from California.

两个方面导致2020 年生猪供应更为紧缺。一方面是能繁母猪数据2019 年下滑最为迅速，另一方面2020 年养殖行业仍处于非洲猪瘟疫情适应阶段。供给状况的持续低迷，导致2020 年前三季度生猪价格有望持续高位运行，我们判断生猪养殖企业将面临业绩持续走高的状况。预计2021 年生猪供应量将持续恢复，从我们跟踪的情况来看，目前养殖环节的隐形产能增长较为明显，后备母猪和纯种母猪的销量都有了很大的提升，这就为未来几年生猪供应量恢复提供了较为坚实的基础。我们判断，2021 年开始，我国生猪供应量将持续回升，且有望呈现加速态势。

医药生物和农林牧渔跑赢沪深300 指数。周三大盘持续上涨。大消费板块中，仅医药生物和农林牧渔跑赢沪深300 指数，其他消费行业均跑输沪深300 指数。其中医药生物行业走势回归理性，医药龙头稳步上涨。

近日美国农业部公布了1 月全球农产品供需平衡报告，与12 月预测相比，全球玉米预期库存消费比（剔除中国）进一步下降；全球大豆预期总供应量调增带动库存消费比继续微幅回升；全球棉花预期总供应量调减带动库存消费比下降；全球小麦库存消费比（剔除中国）继续小幅下降。