2026 年美国经济状况或比表象更为脆弱，经济增长的驱动局限在 AI 相关的投资和高收入群体的消费，其他部分贡献甚微。失业率在供需两端均受限的情况下艰难维持平衡，但劳动力市场周期性放缓的脚步仍未停歇。通胀 向目标回落的进程在核心分项牵制下也将放缓。在此背景下，美联储的决策变得异常复杂，短期出于对劳动力市场的担忧将选择继续降息，但空间有限，目标点位应在略低于名义中性利率的水平，而且随着时间推移，美联储主席人选对于降息预期的扰动也将愈发明显。另外，其他政策上的拉锯也仍在进行，上半年聚焦财政预算和关税判决的落地，下半年关注特朗普能否在中期选举中保住两院的优势地位。欧洲方面，2026 年经济面临的外部风险偏向下行，更多挑战来源于经济内生动能的修复，财政支持下的国防开支将使得欧元区投资重获动能。在通胀回归基本无虞的情况下，欧央行政策不会有较大改变，预计全年仅有一次降息。

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The market by value in this report is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from goods and/or services sold within the specified market and geography. • Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods.

Predictive AI in retail market refers to the application of advanced analytical technologies, including machine learning, statistical algorithms, and data mining, to analyse historical and real time data. The primary objective is to forecast future events, consumer behaviours, and market trends with a high degree of accuracy. This technology enables retail organizations to transition from a reactive to a proactive operational stance by anticipating outcomes related to sales, inventory requirements, and customer preferences. By processing vast datasets that encompass transaction histories, customer interactions, and external market factors, predictive AI provides actionable insights. These insights empower retailers to make informed, data driven decisions across various functions such as merchandising, supply chain management, marketing, and customer service, ultimately aiming to enhance operational efficiency, minimize risks like overstocking or stockouts, and personalize the customer journey to foster loyalty and drive revenue growth.

The market by value in this report is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from goods and/or services sold within the specified market and geography. • The market value includes the value of related goods sold by the service provider or included within the service offering. Only goods and services traded between entities or sold to end consumers are included.

Insurance analytics involves the use of data analysis and statistical techniques to gain insights into the insurance industry. It helps insurers make informed decisions, assess risks, detect fraudulent activities, and enhance overall operational efficiency. This technology leverages data from various sources, including customer information, claims data, and market trends, to optimize underwriting, pricing, and claims processing activities.

The market by value in this report is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from goods and/or services sold within the specified market and geography. • Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods.

Global predictive AI in stock market encompasses the application of advanced computational technologies, including machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing, to analyze vast and complex financial datasets. This technology processes historical price data, corporate filings, macroeconomic indicators, and real time news sentiment to identify patterns and forecast future stock price movements, market trends, and volatility. The primary objective is to generate data driven, actionable insights that enhance algorithmic trading strategies, optimize portfolio management, and improve risk assessment frameworks. This market represents a significant shift from traditional technical and fundamental analysis toward more sophisticated, automated, and probabilistic models for investment decision making.

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