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房地产行业:地产基本面存在失速风险-月报
从10 月统计局数据来看,房地产基本面存在失速风险。我们认为过度放任 风险并不利于行业平稳健康发展,必要的边际宽松动作已经在进行中。结合 板块低估值和低仓位,重申Q4 可能是今明年地产股最好的投资时点。建议 从终局思维选择头部房企,享受短期估值修复和长期格局优化、非开发业务 带来的稳健成长,同时可以关注头部物管公司和彻底转型的部分房企。
产业链前后端全面低迷 ................................................................................................................................................. 4
开发投资当月同比降幅继续扩大 ........................................................................................................................... 4
新开工出现失速,竣工继续走弱 ........................................................................................................................... 5
土地市场持续低迷 ................................................................................................................................................. 6
地产金融端松绑对于提振需求效果有限 ........................................................................................................................ 8
销售企稳前难言流动性风险改善 ................................................................................................................................. 10
终局思维,向死而生 ................................................................................................................................................... 12
重点推荐标的 ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
万科A(000002 CH,买入,目标价25.58 元) ........................................................................................ 12
金地集团(600383 CH,买入,目标价16.30 元) .................................................................................... 12
金科股份(000656 CH,买入,目标价5.36 元) ...................................................................................... 12
中交地产(000736 CH,买入,目标价5.98 元) ...................................................................................... 13
华润置地(1109 HK,买入,目标价44.50 港元) ..................................................................................... 13
龙湖集团(0960 HK,买入,目标价55.00 港元) ..................................................................................... 13
中国海外发展(0688 HK,买入,目标价33.30 港元) .............................................................................. 13
碧桂园服务(6098 HK,买入,目标价83.70 港元) ................................................................................. 14
保利物业(6049 HK,买入,目标价82.70 港元) ..................................................................................... 14
旭辉永升服务(1995 HK,买入,目标价23.00 港元) .............................................................................. 14
中海物业(2669 HK,买入,目标价10.20 港元) ..................................................................................... 15
新大正(002968 CH,买入,目标价45.14 元) ........................................................................................ 15
招商积余(001914 CH,买入,目标价17.08 元) .................................................................................... 15
华联控股(000036 CH,增持,目标价5.37 元) ...................................................................................... 15
鲁商发展(600223 CH,买入,目标价16.16 元) .................................................................................... 15
风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................. 16