发电端，电源端投资已进入高景气周期。2020 年起风电光伏投资额显著提升，2023H1 电源投资累计同比增53.8%。东方电气为电源装备行业龙头企业，将充分受益于电源投资增长。输变电端，核心一次设备量利齐增。需求侧：1）网内输变电采购总额高增，前两批次同比+50%以上。2）网外市场由风电、光伏等新能源装机高增带动变压器等需求旺盛。3）海外需求高增，H1 变压器、高压开关等出口额增速超 25%。供给侧：1）核心原材料（硅钢、铜）价格下行，疫情影响消除，毛利持续修复。2）产量增速不及需求增速，供需偏紧。整体表现出量利齐增的趋势。特高压方面：已有 3 条直流线路开工，前两批设备采购额 143亿元，远超同期。新能源大规模外送消纳需求下，预计后续新增项目将持续落地。整体来看，输变电一次设备呈现量利齐增趋势；格局稳定头部集中；高电压产品价值量、技术壁垒、获客成本均较高，收入弹性较大。 

本周港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 105 元/吨，报收 765 元/吨。供给端，产地供应有所回落，本周日均港口调入量约 187.26 万吨，环比下降 10.26%。需求端，本周日均港口调出量约 177.11 万吨，环比下降 9.84%。库存端，电厂库存仍处于较高水平，港口方面，本周环渤海四港口日均库存继续上行，环比增加 2.63%，整体仍处于近年高位。预计随着用电旺季即将到来，预计后续动力煤需求仍有支撑，价格企稳运行。

Equipment Type: Parts and accessories for residential-type portable lighting fixtures Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Land transportation motors, generators, and control equipment (excluding parts) Industry: Electrical equipment manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Other fluorescent lighting equipment, complete units, including processing equipment Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Indoor and outdoor current instrument transformers electronic audio and video equipment for home entertainment, motor vehicle, public address and musical instrument amplifications. Examples of products made by these establishments are video cassette recorders, televisions, stereo equipment, speaker systems, household-type video cameras, jukeboxes, and amplifiers for musical instruments and public address systems.

Equipment Type: Outdoor lighting equipment (including parts and accessories) Industry: Lighting fixture manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Lithium round and prismatic primary battery cells Industry: Battery manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Industrial control relays (all voltages) electronic audio and video equipment for home entertainment, motor vehicle, public address and musical instrument amplifications. Examples of products made by these establishments are video cassette recorders, televisions, stereo equipment, speaker systems, household-type video cameras, jukeboxes, and amplifiers for musical instruments and public address systems.

Equipment Type: Other cable, cord, and flexible conduit fittings Industry: Wiring device manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Other pole and transmission line hardware, including anchors Industry: Wiring device manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Other cable, cord, and flexible conduit fittings Industry: Wiring device manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Molded case circuit breakers, 1000 volts or less Industry: Electrical equipment manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Nonmetallic sheathed cable and cord fittings Industry: Wiring device manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

Equipment Type: Inside wiring cable Industry: Communication and energy wire and cable manufacturing The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

投资建议：储能需求向上，关注储能三大场景下的投资机会。场景一：大储的核心在于商业模式，重点推荐【阳光电源】【南都电源】【南网科技】【金盘 科技】【科陆电子】【威腾电气】等，建议关注【科华数据】【永福股份】【英维克】【青鸟消防】；场景二：工商业侧储能，重点推荐【苏文电能】【华 自科技】【金冠电气】【金冠股份】【泽宇智能】等；场景三：户储的核心在于产品，重点推荐【科士达】【派能科技】【鹏辉能源】【德业股份】等。

虚拟电厂的核心是分布式资源的聚合与优化。虚拟电厂并不是真实存在的电厂，而是一种智能电网技术，应用分布式电力管理系统参与电网运行调度，实现“源-荷-网”聚合优化。虚拟电厂主要可分为站控层、过程层、资源层，其中资源层的调节能力和质量决定虚拟电厂完成调度指令的能力，工商业储能作为最优质的调节资源之一，是虚拟电厂大发展的重要前提条件。

工控：需求处于去库尾声，经济政策刺激预期下，H2行业有望迎来拐点。2021Q3起行业 进入下行周期，距今已有2年时间，需求有望于Q3拐点向上：1）分市场看，2023Q2 OEM市场/项目型市场整体同比增速为+2.1%/-10.7%；2）分下游看，2023Q2光伏行业 资本开支仍维持景气，传统OEM行业普遍承压，结合内外资公司反馈，5-6月传统下游需 求仍显疲态。2023年我们预计行业同增5%-8%，刺激政策预期+去年低基数等因素下， 2023H2有望好于H1。内资工控龙头及二线龙头紧抓光伏、海外市场等结构性机会，下行 期业绩表现仍较为稳健。重点推荐：汇川技术、三花智控、宏发股份、鸣志电器、禾川科 技、雷赛智能、麦格米特、中控技术，关注：信捷电气、伟创电气等。

电动车仍处于高速增长期，新能源长期趋势不变。国内电动车市场经历了 2014-2017 年的初 创期、2018-2020 年的徘徊调整期和 2020 年下半年至今的高速增长期，行业主要驱动力从补贴 转为产品内在竞争力，截至 2023 年 6月渗透率已超 30%。2022 年欧洲/美国市场共销售 259.2 万 89.7万辆电动车，渗透率仅 23%/6.5% ，相较于国内市场，海外渗透率仍有极大提升空间，正处于政策推动与快速追赶过程中。动力电池将随新能源车终端市场增长得到快速发展，据测算 到 2025 年全球动力锂电池装机量将达到 1358GWh ，22-25年 CAGR为38% 。储能市场方 面，电化学储能资源可得性高、安装灵活、建设周期短，受益于成本下降和技术突破，储能锂电 池将随电化学储能市场发展潜能释放获得快速增长。